Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
23%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.752.74safe0.02–1.960.90–2.610.92–4.56safer0.00–2.210.67–2.840.44–5.04
Shots on target
19%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.395.448.83safe1.53–5.253.70–7.185.22–12.43safer1.04–5.743.23–7.654.27–13.39
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9416.0226.95safe7.01–14.8612.46–19.5819.47–34.44safer5.92–15.9511.50–20.5417.42–36.49
Shots in box
13%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.1210.0116.13safe3.18–9.067.33–12.6910.51–21.75safer2.35–9.896.59–13.438.94–23.32
Blocked shots
27%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.796.52safe0.84–4.612.14–5.442.98–10.05safer0.30–5.151.65–5.941.95–11.09
Corners
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction4.055.9710.02safe1.84–6.273.97–7.975.81–14.23safer1.27–6.843.43–8.504.70–15.34
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.1856.33safe36.39–49.9749.54–63.11safer34.72–51.6447.87–64.78
Passes
24%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction380463843safe313–448397–529710–977safer295–466379–547674–1013
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction65.1573.30safe61.12–69.1868.98–77.63safer59.82–70.4767.67–78.94
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6714.3627.03safe9.83–15.5011.42–17.3121.25–32.81safer9.07–16.2610.67–18.0619.74–34.32
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.663.55safe0.73–3.050.57–2.751.30–5.80safer0.43–3.350.28–3.040.71–6.39
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.254.09safe0.80–2.901.12–3.381.91–6.27safer0.53–3.160.83–3.671.36–6.83
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.140.22safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.390.00–0.460.00–0.85
GK saves
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.602.395.99safe2.16–5.030.84–3.953.00–8.98safer1.77–5.420.41–4.372.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.75 0.90–2.61 0.67–2.84 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 21% 23% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.39 1.53–5.25 1.04–5.74 | 5.44 3.70–7.18 3.23–7.65 | 8.83 5.22–12.43 4.27–13.39 | 19% 70% |
| Total shots | 10.94 7.01–14.86 5.92–15.95 | 16.02 12.46–19.58 11.50–20.54 | 26.95 19.47–34.44 17.42–36.49 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 6.12 3.18–9.06 2.35–9.89 | 10.01 7.33–12.69 6.59–13.43 | 16.13 10.51–21.75 8.94–23.32 | 13% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 2.72 0.84–4.61 0.30–5.15 | 3.79 2.14–5.44 1.65–5.94 | 6.52 2.98–10.05 1.95–11.09 | 27% 15% 59% |
| Corners | 4.05 1.84–6.27 1.27–6.84 | 5.97 3.97–7.97 3.43–8.50 | 10.02 5.81–14.23 4.70–15.34 | 22% 67% |
| Possession % | 43.18 36.39–49.97 34.72–51.64 | 56.33 49.54–63.11 47.87–64.78 | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 380 313–448 295–466 | 463 397–529 379–547 | 843 710–977 674–1013 | 24% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.15 61.12–69.18 59.82–70.47 | 73.30 68.98–77.63 67.67–78.94 | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 12.67 9.83–15.50 9.07–16.26 | 14.36 11.42–17.31 10.67–18.06 | 27.03 21.25–32.81 19.74–34.32 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.43–3.35 | 1.66 0.57–2.75 0.28–3.04 | 3.55 1.30–5.80 0.71–6.39 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.53–3.16 | 2.25 1.12–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 4.09 1.91–6.27 1.36–6.83 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.60 2.16–5.03 1.77–5.42 | 2.39 0.84–3.95 0.41–4.37 | 5.99 3.00–8.98 2.19–9.80 | 61% 15% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.