Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.022.28safe0.28–2.220.17–1.880.45–4.10safer0.03–2.470.00–2.110.00–4.58
Shots on target
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.788.29safe2.64–6.372.04–5.524.68–11.89safer2.15–6.861.57–5.993.72–12.85
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1912.0526.24safe10.27–18.128.48–15.6118.75–33.73safer9.18–19.217.52–16.5716.70–35.78
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.006.8514.85safe5.05–10.944.17–9.539.22–20.47safer4.23–11.773.43–10.277.66–22.04
Blocked shots
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.392.736.12safe1.50–5.271.08–4.382.58–9.65safer0.96–5.810.59–4.881.55–10.69
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.489.37safe2.67–7.102.48–6.485.15–13.58safer2.09–7.671.95–7.024.05–14.69
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.4747.48safe45.68–59.2640.69–54.26safer44.01–60.9339.02–55.93
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction447406853safe380–515339–472719–987safer362–533322–490684–1022
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction72.5872.75safe68.55–76.6168.43–77.08safer67.25–77.9067.12–78.39
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5213.3826.90safe10.68–16.3510.44–16.3321.11–32.68safer9.92–17.119.69–17.0819.61–34.18
Offsides
40%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.322.74safe0.26–2.580.23–2.410.49–5.00safer0.00–2.880.00–2.700.00–5.59
Yellow cards
33%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.534.61safe1.03–3.131.40–3.662.43–6.78safer0.76–3.391.11–3.951.87–7.34
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.23safe0.00–0.250.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.265.96safe1.26–4.131.70–4.822.96–8.95safer0.87–4.521.28–5.242.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.02 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.28 0.45–4.10 0.00–4.58 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.37 2.15–6.86 | 3.78 2.04–5.52 1.57–5.99 | 8.29 4.68–11.89 3.72–12.85 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.19 10.27–18.12 9.18–19.21 | 12.05 8.48–15.61 7.52–16.57 | 26.24 18.75–33.73 16.70–35.78 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.05–10.94 4.23–11.77 | 6.85 4.17–9.53 3.43–10.27 | 14.85 9.22–20.47 7.66–22.04 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.50–5.27 0.96–5.81 | 2.73 1.08–4.38 0.59–4.88 | 6.12 2.58–9.65 1.55–10.69 | 52% 16% 32% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.10 2.09–7.67 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.02 | 9.37 5.15–13.58 4.05–14.69 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 52.47 45.68–59.26 44.01–60.93 | 47.48 40.69–54.26 39.02–55.93 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 447 380–515 362–533 | 406 339–472 322–490 | 853 719–987 684–1022 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.58 68.55–76.61 67.25–77.90 | 72.75 68.43–77.08 67.12–78.39 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 13.52 10.68–16.35 9.92–17.11 | 13.38 10.44–16.33 9.69–17.08 | 26.90 21.11–32.68 19.61–34.18 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.88 | 1.32 0.23–2.41 0.00–2.70 | 2.74 0.49–5.00 0.00–5.59 | 40% 26% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 4.61 2.43–6.78 1.87–7.34 | 33% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.26–4.13 0.87–4.52 | 3.26 1.70–4.82 1.28–5.24 | 5.96 2.96–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+