Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.162.47safe0.35–2.280.30–2.010.65–4.29safer0.09–2.530.07–2.240.17–4.77
Shots on target
50%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.108.70safe2.74–6.462.36–5.845.10–12.31safer2.25–6.951.89–6.314.14–13.26
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7612.8825.63safe8.83–16.689.32–16.4418.15–33.12safer7.74–17.778.36–17.4016.10–35.17
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.607.1014.70safe4.66–10.554.42–9.789.08–20.32safer3.83–11.383.68–10.517.51–21.89
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.333.346.67safe1.45–5.211.69–4.993.14–10.21safer0.91–5.761.19–5.492.10–11.24
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.399.20safe2.60–7.022.39–6.394.99–13.41safer2.02–7.601.86–6.923.88–14.52
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.9050.88safe43.11–56.6944.09–57.66safer41.44–58.3642.42–59.33
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction423440864safe356–490374–507730–997safer338–509356–524694–1033
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction72.0674.22safe68.03–76.0969.89–78.54safer66.74–77.3868.58–79.85
Fouls
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3013.6727.97safe11.46–17.1410.72–16.6122.19–33.75safer10.71–17.909.98–17.3620.68–35.26
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.432.92safe0.33–2.650.34–2.520.66–5.17safer0.03–2.950.05–2.810.07–5.76
Yellow cards
37%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.324.48safe1.11–3.211.19–3.452.30–6.66safer0.85–3.480.90–3.741.74–7.21
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.26safe0.00–0.280.00–0.320.00–0.60safer0.00–0.430.00–0.450.00–0.89
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.206.06safe1.43–4.301.64–4.753.07–9.05safer1.04–4.691.21–5.182.26–9.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 2.47 0.65–4.29 0.17–4.77 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.74–6.46 2.25–6.95 | 4.10 2.36–5.84 1.89–6.31 | 8.70 5.10–12.31 4.14–13.26 | 50% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.76 8.83–16.68 7.74–17.77 | 12.88 9.32–16.44 8.36–17.40 | 25.63 18.15–33.12 16.10–35.17 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 7.60 4.66–10.55 3.83–11.38 | 7.10 4.42–9.78 3.68–10.51 | 14.70 9.08–20.32 7.51–21.89 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.33 1.45–5.21 0.91–5.76 | 3.34 1.69–4.99 1.19–5.49 | 6.67 3.14–10.21 2.10–11.24 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.60–7.02 2.02–7.60 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.86–6.92 | 9.20 4.99–13.41 3.88–14.52 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 49.90 43.11–56.69 41.44–58.36 | 50.88 44.09–57.66 42.42–59.33 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 338–509 | 440 374–507 356–524 | 864 730–997 694–1033 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.06 68.03–76.09 66.74–77.38 | 74.22 69.89–78.54 68.58–79.85 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 14.30 11.46–17.14 10.71–17.90 | 13.67 10.72–16.61 9.98–17.36 | 27.97 22.19–33.75 20.68–35.26 | 51% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.03–2.95 | 1.43 0.34–2.52 0.05–2.81 | 2.92 0.66–5.17 0.07–5.76 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.21 0.85–3.48 | 2.32 1.19–3.45 0.90–3.74 | 4.48 2.30–6.66 1.74–7.21 | 37% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 3.20 1.64–4.75 1.21–5.18 | 6.06 3.07–9.05 2.26–9.86 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.