Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.392.62safe0.26–2.200.53–2.240.79–4.44safer0.01–2.450.30–2.470.31–4.92
Shots on target
41%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.254.438.69safe2.39–6.112.69–6.185.08–12.29safer1.90–6.602.22–6.644.12–13.25
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4013.4026.80safe9.47–17.329.84–16.9719.31–34.29safer8.38–18.418.88–17.9317.26–36.34
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.228.2416.45safe5.27–11.165.56–10.9210.83–22.08safer4.45–11.994.82–11.669.26–23.64
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.243.426.65safe1.35–5.121.76–5.073.12–10.19safer0.81–5.661.27–5.562.08–11.22
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.889.72safe2.63–7.052.88–6.885.51–13.93safer2.05–7.632.34–7.414.40–15.04
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction49.0051.41safe42.21–55.7944.63–58.20safer40.54–57.4642.96–59.87
Passes
52%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction446440885safe378–513373–506751–1019safer360–531356–524716–1055
Pass accuracy %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction70.1773.55safe66.14–74.2069.22–77.87safer64.85–75.4967.91–79.18
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1714.1226.28safe9.33–15.0111.17–17.0620.50–32.07safer8.58–15.7610.42–17.8119.00–33.57
Offsides
53%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.373.43safe0.90–3.220.28–2.471.18–5.69safer0.60–3.520.00–2.760.59–6.27
Yellow cards
31%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.223.99safe0.72–2.821.09–3.351.81–6.17safer0.46–3.090.80–3.641.26–6.73
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.825.85safe1.59–4.461.27–4.382.85–8.84safer1.20–4.850.84–4.802.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.47 | 2.62 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 33% 26% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 4.43 2.69–6.18 2.22–6.64 | 8.69 5.08–12.29 4.12–13.25 | 41% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 13.40 9.47–17.32 8.38–18.41 | 13.40 9.84–16.97 8.88–17.93 | 26.80 19.31–34.29 17.26–36.34 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.22 5.27–11.16 4.45–11.99 | 8.24 5.56–10.92 4.82–11.66 | 16.45 10.83–22.08 9.26–23.64 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.24 1.35–5.12 0.81–5.66 | 3.42 1.76–5.07 1.27–5.56 | 6.65 3.12–10.19 2.08–11.22 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.84 2.63–7.05 2.05–7.63 | 4.88 2.88–6.88 2.34–7.41 | 9.72 5.51–13.93 4.40–15.04 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 49.00 42.21–55.79 40.54–57.46 | 51.41 44.63–58.20 42.96–59.87 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 446 378–513 360–531 | 440 373–506 356–524 | 885 751–1019 716–1055 | 52% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.17 66.14–74.20 64.85–75.49 | 73.55 69.22–77.87 67.91–79.18 | — | 31% 64% |
| Fouls | 12.17 9.33–15.01 8.58–15.76 | 14.12 11.17–17.06 10.42–17.81 | 26.28 20.50–32.07 19.00–33.57 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.52 | 1.37 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.43 1.18–5.69 0.59–6.27 | 53% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 2.22 1.09–3.35 0.80–3.64 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.26–6.73 | 31% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.80 | 5.85 2.85–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.