Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
25%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.650.962.60safe0.68–2.610.10–1.810.78–4.43safer0.43–2.870.00–2.040.30–4.90
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.273.438.70safe3.41–7.141.68–5.175.10–12.31safer2.92–7.631.22–5.644.14–13.26
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction17.2010.4427.63safe13.27–21.126.88–14.0020.15–35.12safer12.18–22.215.92–14.9618.10–37.17
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.166.9817.14safe7.22–13.104.30–9.6611.51–22.76safer6.39–13.933.56–10.399.95–24.33
Blocked shots
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.612.417.02safe2.73–6.490.76–4.073.48–10.56safer2.18–7.030.27–4.562.45–11.59
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.213.429.63safe4.00–8.421.42–5.425.41–13.84safer3.42–9.000.88–5.954.31–14.95
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction53.8644.91safe47.07–60.6538.12–51.69safer45.40–62.3236.45–53.36
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction478405883safe411–545339–471750–1017safer393–564321–489714–1053
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction73.6571.31safe69.62–77.6866.99–75.64safer68.33–78.9765.68–76.95
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6912.4326.12safe10.86–16.539.48–15.3720.34–31.90safer10.10–17.298.73–16.1218.83–33.41
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.893.52safe0.47–2.790.80–2.981.27–5.78safer0.17–3.090.51–3.270.68–6.37
Yellow cards
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.063.96safe0.85–2.950.93–3.191.78–6.14safer0.58–3.210.64–3.481.22–6.69
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.273.245.51safe0.83–3.701.69–4.802.52–8.50safer0.44–4.091.26–5.221.71–9.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 0.96 0.10–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.30–4.90 | 54% 25% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.27 3.41–7.14 2.92–7.63 | 3.43 1.68–5.17 1.22–5.64 | 8.70 5.10–12.31 4.14–13.26 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 17.20 13.27–21.12 12.18–22.21 | 10.44 6.88–14.00 5.92–14.96 | 27.63 20.15–35.12 18.10–37.17 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 10.16 7.22–13.10 6.39–13.93 | 6.98 4.30–9.66 3.56–10.39 | 17.14 11.51–22.76 9.95–24.33 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.61 2.73–6.49 2.18–7.03 | 2.41 0.76–4.07 0.27–4.56 | 7.02 3.48–10.56 2.45–11.59 | 74% 15% |
| Corners | 6.21 4.00–8.42 3.42–9.00 | 3.42 1.42–5.42 0.88–5.95 | 9.63 5.41–13.84 4.31–14.95 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 53.86 47.07–60.65 45.40–62.32 | 44.91 38.12–51.69 36.45–53.36 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 478 411–545 393–564 | 405 339–471 321–489 | 883 750–1017 714–1053 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.65 69.62–77.68 68.33–78.97 | 71.31 66.99–75.64 65.68–76.95 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 13.69 10.86–16.53 10.10–17.29 | 12.43 9.48–15.37 8.73–16.12 | 26.12 20.34–31.90 18.83–33.41 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.09 | 1.89 0.80–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 3.52 1.27–5.78 0.68–6.37 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.58–3.21 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.96 1.78–6.14 1.22–6.69 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.83–3.70 0.44–4.09 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 5.51 2.52–8.50 1.71–9.31 | 26% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.