Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.442.55safe0.13–2.070.59–2.300.72–4.37safer0.00–2.320.36–2.530.24–4.85
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.854.418.26safe1.99–5.712.67–6.154.65–11.86safer1.50–6.202.20–6.623.70–12.82
Total shots
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3713.0824.45safe7.45–15.309.51–16.6416.96–31.93safer6.35–16.398.55–17.6014.91–33.98
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.658.6715.32safe3.70–9.595.99–11.359.69–20.94safer2.87–10.425.25–12.098.13–22.51
Blocked shots
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.135.93safe0.92–4.681.48–4.782.40–9.47safer0.38–5.230.98–5.281.36–10.50
Corners
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.705.099.79safe2.49–6.913.09–7.095.58–14.00safer1.91–7.492.56–7.624.47–15.11
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction47.9251.99safe41.13–54.7145.20–58.77safer39.46–56.3843.53–60.44
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction408419827safe341–475352–485693–960safer322–493335–503657–996
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction66.1469.97safe62.11–70.1765.65–74.29safer60.81–71.4664.34–75.60
Fouls
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3613.6027.95safe11.52–17.2010.65–16.5422.17–33.74safer10.76–17.959.90–17.2920.67–35.24
Offsides
44%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.463.21safe0.58–2.910.37–2.560.96–5.46safer0.28–3.210.08–2.850.37–6.05
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.142.154.29safe1.09–3.191.02–3.282.12–6.47safer0.83–3.460.73–3.571.56–7.03
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.725.74safe1.58–4.451.17–4.282.75–8.73safer1.19–4.840.74–4.701.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.13–2.07 0.00–2.32 | 1.44 0.59–2.30 0.36–2.53 | 2.55 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 29% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.85 1.99–5.71 1.50–6.20 | 4.41 2.67–6.15 2.20–6.62 | 8.26 4.65–11.86 3.70–12.82 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 11.37 7.45–15.30 6.35–16.39 | 13.08 9.51–16.64 8.55–17.60 | 24.45 16.96–31.93 14.91–33.98 | 33% 60% |
| Shots in box | 6.65 3.70–9.59 2.87–10.42 | 8.67 5.99–11.35 5.25–12.09 | 15.32 9.69–20.94 8.13–22.51 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 2.80 0.92–4.68 0.38–5.23 | 3.13 1.48–4.78 0.98–5.28 | 5.93 2.40–9.47 1.36–10.50 | 36% 17% 47% |
| Corners | 4.70 2.49–6.91 1.91–7.49 | 5.09 3.09–7.09 2.56–7.62 | 9.79 5.58–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 39% 48% |
| Possession % | 47.92 41.13–54.71 39.46–56.38 | 51.99 45.20–58.77 43.53–60.44 | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 408 341–475 322–493 | 419 352–485 335–503 | 827 693–960 657–996 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.14 62.11–70.17 60.81–71.46 | 69.97 65.65–74.29 64.34–75.60 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 14.36 11.52–17.20 10.76–17.95 | 13.60 10.65–16.54 9.90–17.29 | 27.95 22.17–33.74 20.67–35.24 | 52% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.91 0.28–3.21 | 1.46 0.37–2.56 0.08–2.85 | 3.21 0.96–5.46 0.37–6.05 | 44% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.19 0.83–3.46 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.29 2.12–6.47 1.56–7.03 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.58–4.45 1.19–4.84 | 2.72 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.70 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.