Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
27%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.450.942.40safe0.48–2.420.09–1.800.57–4.22safer0.23–2.670.00–2.030.09–4.70
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.883.027.89safe3.01–6.741.28–4.764.29–11.50safer2.53–7.230.81–5.233.33–12.46
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction14.279.7924.06safe10.35–18.206.22–13.3516.57–31.55safer9.26–19.295.26–14.3114.52–33.60
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction9.495.7915.28safe6.55–12.443.11–8.479.66–20.91safer5.72–13.272.37–9.218.09–22.47
Blocked shots
64%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.306.03safe1.84–5.610.65–3.962.49–9.57safer1.30–6.150.16–4.451.46–10.60
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.059.79safe3.53–7.962.05–6.055.58–14.01safer2.95–8.531.52–6.594.47–15.12
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction52.9246.15safe46.13–59.7139.37–52.94safer44.46–61.3837.70–54.61
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction446387833safe379–514320–453699–967safer361–532303–471664–1002
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction69.8468.50safe65.81–73.8764.17–72.82safer64.52–75.1662.87–74.13
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1614.4126.56safe9.32–15.0011.46–17.3520.78–32.35safer8.56–15.7510.71–18.1019.28–33.85
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.593.24safe0.49–2.810.49–2.680.98–5.49safer0.19–3.110.20–2.970.40–6.08
Yellow cards
28%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.243.88safe0.60–2.691.11–3.371.70–6.06safer0.33–2.960.82–3.661.15–6.62
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.233.165.39safe0.79–3.671.60–4.712.39–8.38safer0.41–4.051.18–5.141.58–9.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 0.94 0.09–1.80 0.00–2.03 | 2.40 0.57–4.22 0.09–4.70 | 49% 27% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.01–6.74 2.53–7.23 | 3.02 1.28–4.76 0.81–5.23 | 7.89 4.29–11.50 3.33–12.46 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 14.27 10.35–18.20 9.26–19.29 | 9.79 6.22–13.35 5.26–14.31 | 24.06 16.57–31.55 14.52–33.60 | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.49 6.55–12.44 5.72–13.27 | 5.79 3.11–8.47 2.37–9.21 | 15.28 9.66–20.91 8.09–22.47 | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.84–5.61 1.30–6.15 | 2.30 0.65–3.96 0.16–4.45 | 6.03 2.49–9.57 1.46–10.60 | 64% 14% 21% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.96 2.95–8.53 | 4.05 2.05–6.05 1.52–6.59 | 9.79 5.58–14.01 4.47–15.12 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 52.92 46.13–59.71 44.46–61.38 | 46.15 39.37–52.94 37.70–54.61 | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 446 379–514 361–532 | 387 320–453 303–471 | 833 699–967 664–1002 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.84 65.81–73.87 64.52–75.16 | 68.50 64.17–72.82 62.87–74.13 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.32–15.00 8.56–15.75 | 14.41 11.46–17.35 10.71–18.10 | 26.56 20.78–32.35 19.28–33.85 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.11 | 1.59 0.49–2.68 0.20–2.97 | 3.24 0.98–5.49 0.40–6.08 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.60–2.69 0.33–2.96 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.88 1.70–6.06 1.15–6.62 | 28% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.79–3.67 0.41–4.05 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.18–5.14 | 5.39 2.39–8.38 1.58–9.19 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.