Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
27%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.402.48safe0.11–2.040.55–2.260.65–4.30safer0.00–2.290.32–2.480.17–4.78
Shots on target
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.604.418.01safe1.73–5.462.67–6.154.40–11.61safer1.24–5.952.20–6.623.45–12.57
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7312.2724.00safe7.80–15.658.71–15.8416.51–31.49safer6.71–16.747.75–16.7914.46–33.54
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction6.828.3915.21safe3.88–9.765.71–11.079.59–20.84safer3.05–10.594.97–11.818.02–22.40
Blocked shots
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.166.24safe1.20–4.961.50–4.812.70–9.77safer0.66–5.511.01–5.301.67–10.81
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.435.089.51safe2.22–6.643.08–7.085.29–13.72safer1.64–7.222.54–7.614.19–14.83
Possession %
45%
51%
homeawayprediction49.6850.92safe42.89–56.4744.13–57.70safer41.22–58.1442.46–59.38
Passes
53%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction397387783safe330–464320–453650–917safer311–482303–471614–953
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction65.8069.80safe61.77–69.8365.47–74.12safer60.48–71.1264.16–75.43
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5514.9829.53safe11.71–17.3912.03–17.9223.75–35.31safer10.96–18.1511.28–18.6722.24–36.82
Offsides
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.913.28safe0.21–2.530.81–3.001.03–5.54safer0.00–2.840.53–3.290.44–6.13
Yellow cards
41%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.742.755.49safe1.69–3.791.62–3.883.31–7.67safer1.42–4.051.33–4.172.76–8.23
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.140.28safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.460.00–0.91
GK saves
47%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.525.39safe1.44–4.310.96–4.072.40–8.38safer1.05–4.700.54–4.501.59–9.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.11–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.40 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.48 | 2.48 0.65–4.30 0.17–4.78 | 29% 27% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.60 1.73–5.46 1.24–5.95 | 4.41 2.67–6.15 2.20–6.62 | 8.01 4.40–11.61 3.45–12.57 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Total shots | 11.73 7.80–15.65 6.71–16.74 | 12.27 8.71–15.84 7.75–16.79 | 24.00 16.51–31.49 14.46–33.54 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 6.82 3.88–9.76 3.05–10.59 | 8.39 5.71–11.07 4.97–11.81 | 15.21 9.59–20.84 8.02–22.40 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.20–4.96 0.66–5.51 | 3.16 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 6.24 2.70–9.77 1.67–10.81 | 41% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 4.43 2.22–6.64 1.64–7.22 | 5.08 3.08–7.08 2.54–7.61 | 9.51 5.29–13.72 4.19–14.83 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 49.68 42.89–56.47 41.22–58.14 | 50.92 44.13–57.70 42.46–59.38 | — | 45% 51% |
| Passes | 397 330–464 311–482 | 387 320–453 303–471 | 783 650–917 614–953 | 53% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.80 61.77–69.83 60.48–71.12 | 69.80 65.47–74.12 64.16–75.43 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 14.55 11.71–17.39 10.96–18.15 | 14.98 12.03–17.92 11.28–18.67 | 29.53 23.75–35.31 22.24–36.82 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.84 | 1.91 0.81–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.28 1.03–5.54 0.44–6.13 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.74 1.69–3.79 1.42–4.05 | 2.75 1.62–3.88 1.33–4.17 | 5.49 3.31–7.67 2.76–8.23 | 41% 17% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 2.52 0.96–4.07 0.54–4.50 | 5.39 2.40–8.38 1.59–9.20 | 47% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+