Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
28%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.370.912.28safe0.40–2.340.06–1.770.46–4.11safer0.15–2.590.00–2.000.00–4.59
Shots on target
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.873.077.94safe3.01–6.731.33–4.814.33–11.54safer2.52–7.220.86–5.283.38–12.50
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction14.379.7324.10safe10.44–18.296.17–13.3016.61–31.59safer9.35–19.395.21–14.2514.56–33.64
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.406.1215.52safe6.45–12.343.44–8.809.89–21.14safer5.62–13.172.70–9.548.33–22.71
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.516.24safe1.85–5.610.86–4.162.70–9.77safer1.30–6.150.36–4.651.67–10.81
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.623.699.31safe3.40–7.831.69–5.695.10–13.53safer2.83–8.401.16–6.233.99–14.63
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.0345.99safe47.24–60.8239.21–52.78safer45.57–62.4937.54–54.45
Passes
71%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction440372812safe372–507305–438678–945safer354–525288–456642–981
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction68.7169.42safe64.68–72.7465.10–73.75safer63.39–74.0363.79–75.06
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7513.8228.56safe11.91–17.5810.87–16.7622.78–34.35safer11.15–18.3410.13–17.5121.28–35.85
Offsides
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.203.04safe0.68–3.000.11–2.300.79–5.30safer0.38–3.300.00–2.580.20–5.89
Yellow cards
31%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.514.49safe0.93–3.031.38–3.642.31–6.67safer0.66–3.291.09–3.931.76–7.23
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.150.26safe0.00–0.270.00–0.330.00–0.61safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.89
GK saves
25%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.215.42safe0.77–3.641.66–4.772.42–8.41safer0.38–4.031.23–5.191.61–9.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 0.91 0.06–1.77 0.00–2.00 | 2.28 0.46–4.11 0.00–4.59 | 47% 28% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.01–6.73 2.52–7.22 | 3.07 1.33–4.81 0.86–5.28 | 7.94 4.33–11.54 3.38–12.50 | 68% 20% |
| Total shots | 14.37 10.44–18.29 9.35–19.39 | 9.73 6.17–13.30 5.21–14.25 | 24.10 16.61–31.59 14.56–33.64 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.40 6.45–12.34 5.62–13.17 | 6.12 3.44–8.80 2.70–9.54 | 15.52 9.89–21.14 8.33–22.71 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.85–5.61 1.30–6.15 | 2.51 0.86–4.16 0.36–4.65 | 6.24 2.70–9.77 1.67–10.81 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.40–7.83 2.83–8.40 | 3.69 1.69–5.69 1.16–6.23 | 9.31 5.10–13.53 3.99–14.63 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 54.03 47.24–60.82 45.57–62.49 | 45.99 39.21–52.78 37.54–54.45 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 440 372–507 354–525 | 372 305–438 288–456 | 812 678–945 642–981 | 71% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.71 64.68–72.74 63.39–74.03 | 69.42 65.10–73.75 63.79–75.06 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 14.75 11.91–17.58 11.15–18.34 | 13.82 10.87–16.76 10.13–17.51 | 28.56 22.78–34.35 21.28–35.85 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.30 | 1.20 0.11–2.30 0.00–2.58 | 3.04 0.79–5.30 0.20–5.89 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.66–3.29 | 2.51 1.38–3.64 1.09–3.93 | 4.49 2.31–6.67 1.76–7.23 | 31% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.77–3.64 0.38–4.03 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 5.42 2.42–8.41 1.61–9.22 | 25% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.