Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
20%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.002.073.07safe0.03–1.971.22–2.931.25–4.90safer0.00–2.220.99–3.160.77–5.38
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.945.899.83safe2.08–5.804.15–7.646.23–13.44safer1.59–6.293.69–8.105.27–14.39
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4514.6627.12safe8.53–16.3811.10–18.2219.63–34.60safer7.44–17.4710.14–19.1817.58–36.65
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction7.0910.0717.16safe4.15–10.047.39–12.7511.54–22.79safer3.32–10.866.65–13.499.97–24.35
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.154.147.29safe1.27–5.032.48–5.793.75–10.82safer0.72–5.571.99–6.282.72–11.86
Corners
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.216.0110.22safe2.00–6.424.01–8.016.00–14.43safer1.42–7.003.48–8.544.90–15.54
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction39.0961.53safe32.30–45.8854.74–68.31safer30.63–47.5553.07–69.98
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction341541882safe274–408474–607748–1015safer256–427457–624712–1051
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction64.3880.18safe60.35–68.4175.85–84.50safer59.06–69.7174.54–85.81
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0611.7225.77safe11.22–16.898.77–14.6619.99–31.56safer10.46–17.658.02–15.4118.49–33.06
Offsides
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.422.75safe0.18–2.500.32–2.510.50–5.01safer0.00–2.800.04–2.800.00–5.60
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.064.35safe1.24–3.340.93–3.192.18–6.53safer0.98–3.610.64–3.481.62–7.09
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.120.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.310.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.440.00–0.89
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.686.43safe2.31–5.191.12–4.233.43–9.42safer1.93–5.570.70–4.662.62–10.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 2.07 1.22–2.93 0.99–3.16 | 3.07 1.25–4.90 0.77–5.38 | 17% 20% 62% |
| Shots on target | 3.94 2.08–5.80 1.59–6.29 | 5.89 4.15–7.64 3.69–8.10 | 9.83 6.23–13.44 5.27–14.39 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 12.45 8.53–16.38 7.44–17.47 | 14.66 11.10–18.22 10.14–19.18 | 27.12 19.63–34.60 17.58–36.65 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 7.09 4.15–10.04 3.32–10.86 | 10.07 7.39–12.75 6.65–13.49 | 17.16 11.54–22.79 9.97–24.35 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 3.15 1.27–5.03 0.72–5.57 | 4.14 2.48–5.79 1.99–6.28 | 7.29 3.75–10.82 2.72–11.86 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.21 2.00–6.42 1.42–7.00 | 6.01 4.01–8.01 3.48–8.54 | 10.22 6.00–14.43 4.90–15.54 | 23% 66% |
| Possession % | 39.09 32.30–45.88 30.63–47.55 | 61.53 54.74–68.31 53.07–69.98 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 341 274–408 256–427 | 541 474–607 457–624 | 882 748–1015 712–1051 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.38 60.35–68.41 59.06–69.71 | 80.18 75.85–84.50 74.54–85.81 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 14.06 11.22–16.89 10.46–17.65 | 11.72 8.77–14.66 8.02–15.41 | 25.77 19.99–31.56 18.49–33.06 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.80 | 1.42 0.32–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 2.75 0.50–5.01 0.00–5.60 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 1.24–3.34 0.98–3.61 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 4.35 2.18–6.53 1.62–7.09 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.75 2.31–5.19 1.93–5.57 | 2.68 1.12–4.23 0.70–4.66 | 6.43 3.43–9.42 2.62–10.23 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.