Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
26%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.460.962.42safe0.49–2.420.11–1.820.60–4.24safer0.24–2.680.00–2.050.12–4.72
Shots on target
60%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.673.428.09safe2.81–6.531.68–5.174.49–11.70safer2.32–7.021.21–5.633.53–12.65
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3710.4024.78safe10.45–18.306.84–13.9717.29–32.26safer9.36–19.395.88–14.9315.24–34.31
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction8.946.4915.42safe5.99–11.883.81–9.179.80–21.05safer5.16–12.713.07–9.918.23–22.61
Blocked shots
62%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.682.446.12safe1.80–5.560.79–4.092.59–9.66safer1.26–6.110.30–4.591.55–10.69
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.373.959.32safe3.16–7.581.95–5.955.11–13.54safer2.58–8.161.42–6.484.00–14.64
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.6947.96safe44.90–58.4841.17–54.74safer43.23–60.1539.50–56.41
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction445415860safe378–513348–481726–994safer360–531331–499691–1029
Pass accuracy %
44%
50%
homeawayprediction73.5474.14safe69.51–77.5769.81–78.46safer68.22–78.8668.50–79.77
Fouls
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1415.2127.35safe9.30–14.9812.27–18.1621.57–33.13safer8.55–15.7311.52–18.9120.07–34.64
Offsides
49%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.333.16safe0.67–2.990.24–2.420.91–5.42safer0.37–3.290.00–2.710.32–6.00
Yellow cards
23%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.953.044.99safe0.90–3.001.92–4.172.82–7.17safer0.63–3.271.62–4.462.26–7.73
Red cards
13%
73%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.180.35safe0.01–0.330.00–0.370.00–0.70safer0.00–0.480.00–0.500.00–0.98
GK saves
29%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.333.125.45safe0.90–3.771.56–4.672.46–8.44safer0.51–4.161.14–5.101.65–9.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.42 0.24–2.68 | 0.96 0.11–1.82 0.00–2.05 | 2.42 0.60–4.24 0.12–4.72 | 49% 26% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.81–6.53 2.32–7.02 | 3.42 1.68–5.17 1.21–5.63 | 8.09 4.49–11.70 3.53–12.65 | 60% 13% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.37 10.45–18.30 9.36–19.39 | 10.40 6.84–13.97 5.88–14.93 | 24.78 17.29–32.26 15.24–34.31 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.94 5.99–11.88 5.16–12.71 | 6.49 3.81–9.17 3.07–9.91 | 15.42 9.80–21.05 8.23–22.61 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 1.80–5.56 1.26–6.11 | 2.44 0.79–4.09 0.30–4.59 | 6.12 2.59–9.66 1.55–10.69 | 62% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.58 2.58–8.16 | 3.95 1.95–5.95 1.42–6.48 | 9.32 5.11–13.54 4.00–14.64 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 51.69 44.90–58.48 43.23–60.15 | 47.96 41.17–54.74 39.50–56.41 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 445 378–513 360–531 | 415 348–481 331–499 | 860 726–994 691–1029 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.54 69.51–77.57 68.22–78.86 | 74.14 69.81–78.46 68.50–79.77 | — | 44% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.14 9.30–14.98 8.55–15.73 | 15.21 12.27–18.16 11.52–18.91 | 27.35 21.57–33.13 20.07–34.64 | 25% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.33 0.24–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.16 0.91–5.42 0.32–6.00 | 49% 23% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.63–3.27 | 3.04 1.92–4.17 1.62–4.46 | 4.99 2.82–7.17 2.26–7.73 | 23% 16% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.18 0.00–0.37 0.00–0.50 | 0.35 0.00–0.70 0.00–0.98 | 13% 73% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.90–3.77 0.51–4.16 | 3.12 1.56–4.67 1.14–5.10 | 5.45 2.46–8.44 1.65–9.26 | 29% 17% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.