Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
27%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.292.54safe0.28–2.220.43–2.140.71–4.36safer0.03–2.470.20–2.370.23–4.84
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.108.24safe2.28–6.002.35–5.844.63–11.84safer1.79–6.491.89–6.303.68–12.80
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2212.3524.56safe8.29–16.148.79–15.9117.08–32.05safer7.20–17.237.83–16.8715.03–34.10
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.477.5515.02safe4.52–10.414.87–10.239.39–20.64safer3.70–11.244.13–10.977.83–22.21
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.376.48safe1.23–5.001.71–5.022.95–10.02safer0.69–5.541.22–5.511.91–11.05
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.829.28safe2.25–6.682.82–6.825.07–13.49safer1.68–7.252.28–7.353.96–14.60
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction51.2249.68safe44.43–58.0142.90–56.47safer42.76–59.6841.23–58.14
Passes
56%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction452432885safe385–520366–499751–1018safer367–538348–516715–1054
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction71.4874.63safe67.45–75.5170.31–78.96safer66.16–76.8169.00–80.27
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9812.4626.44safe11.14–16.829.51–15.4020.66–32.22safer10.39–17.578.77–16.1519.15–33.72
Offsides
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.733.15safe0.26–2.580.64–2.820.90–5.40safer0.00–2.880.35–3.110.31–5.99
Yellow cards
46%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.662.395.04safe1.61–3.711.26–3.512.86–7.22safer1.34–3.970.97–3.812.31–7.78
Red cards
13%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.140.30safe0.00–0.320.00–0.330.00–0.65safer0.00–0.470.00–0.460.00–0.93
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.785.65safe1.44–4.311.22–4.332.66–8.64safer1.05–4.700.80–4.761.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.54 0.71–4.36 0.23–4.84 | 36% 27% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–6.00 1.79–6.49 | 4.10 2.35–5.84 1.89–6.30 | 8.24 4.63–11.84 3.68–12.80 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.22 8.29–16.14 7.20–17.23 | 12.35 8.79–15.91 7.83–16.87 | 24.56 17.08–32.05 15.03–34.10 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 7.47 4.52–10.41 3.70–11.24 | 7.55 4.87–10.23 4.13–10.97 | 15.02 9.39–20.64 7.83–22.21 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.23–5.00 0.69–5.54 | 3.37 1.71–5.02 1.22–5.51 | 6.48 2.95–10.02 1.91–11.05 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.46 2.25–6.68 1.68–7.25 | 4.82 2.82–6.82 2.28–7.35 | 9.28 5.07–13.49 3.96–14.60 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 51.22 44.43–58.01 42.76–59.68 | 49.68 42.90–56.47 41.23–58.14 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 452 385–520 367–538 | 432 366–499 348–516 | 885 751–1018 715–1054 | 56% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.48 67.45–75.51 66.16–76.81 | 74.63 70.31–78.96 69.00–80.27 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 13.98 11.14–16.82 10.39–17.57 | 12.46 9.51–15.40 8.77–16.15 | 26.44 20.66–32.22 19.15–33.72 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.88 | 1.73 0.64–2.82 0.35–3.11 | 3.15 0.90–5.40 0.31–5.99 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.66 1.61–3.71 1.34–3.97 | 2.39 1.26–3.51 0.97–3.81 | 5.04 2.86–7.22 2.31–7.78 | 46% 18% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 13% 76% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 2.78 1.22–4.33 0.80–4.76 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.85–9.46 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.