Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
28%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.102.28safe0.21–2.150.25–1.960.46–4.10safer0.00–2.400.02–2.190.00–4.58
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.303.908.19safe2.43–6.162.16–5.644.59–11.80safer1.94–6.651.69–6.113.63–12.75
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4011.3825.78safe10.48–18.337.82–14.9418.29–33.27safer9.39–19.426.86–15.9016.24–35.32
Shots in box
58%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.176.8815.04safe5.22–11.114.20–9.569.42–20.67safer4.39–11.943.46–10.307.85–22.23
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.482.986.46safe1.60–5.361.32–4.632.92–9.99safer1.05–5.900.83–5.121.88–11.03
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.209.42safe3.01–7.442.20–6.205.21–13.64safer2.44–8.011.66–6.734.10–14.75
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.7550.47safe42.96–56.5443.69–57.25safer41.29–58.2142.01–58.93
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction429434863safe361–496368–501729–997safer343–514350–518694–1032
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction71.0673.00safe67.03–75.0968.68–77.32safer65.73–76.3867.37–78.63
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5912.6426.23safe10.75–16.439.70–15.5920.45–32.02safer10.00–17.188.95–16.3418.95–33.52
Offsides
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.643.09safe0.28–2.610.55–2.730.83–5.34safer0.00–2.910.26–3.020.24–5.93
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.374.22safe0.80–2.891.24–3.502.04–6.39safer0.53–3.160.95–3.791.48–6.95
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.150.27safe0.00–0.280.00–0.340.00–0.62safer0.00–0.430.00–0.470.00–0.90
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.145.89safe1.31–4.181.58–4.702.89–8.88safer0.92–4.571.16–5.122.08–9.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.10 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.28 0.46–4.10 0.00–4.58 | 38% 28% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.30 2.43–6.16 1.94–6.65 | 3.90 2.16–5.64 1.69–6.11 | 8.19 4.59–11.80 3.63–12.75 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.40 10.48–18.33 9.39–19.42 | 11.38 7.82–14.94 6.86–15.90 | 25.78 18.29–33.27 16.24–35.32 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.22–11.11 4.39–11.94 | 6.88 4.20–9.56 3.46–10.30 | 15.04 9.42–20.67 7.85–22.23 | 58% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.60–5.36 1.05–5.90 | 2.98 1.32–4.63 0.83–5.12 | 6.46 2.92–9.99 1.88–11.03 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.01–7.44 2.44–8.01 | 4.20 2.20–6.20 1.66–6.73 | 9.42 5.21–13.64 4.10–14.75 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 49.75 42.96–56.54 41.29–58.21 | 50.47 43.69–57.25 42.01–58.93 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 429 361–496 343–514 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 863 729–997 694–1032 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.06 67.03–75.09 65.73–76.38 | 73.00 68.68–77.32 67.37–78.63 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 13.59 10.75–16.43 10.00–17.18 | 12.64 9.70–15.59 8.95–16.34 | 26.23 20.45–32.02 18.95–33.52 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 1.64 0.55–2.73 0.26–3.02 | 3.09 0.83–5.34 0.24–5.93 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.80–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 4.22 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.95 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.31–4.18 0.92–4.57 | 3.14 1.58–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 5.89 2.89–8.88 2.08–9.69 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+