Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
28%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.270.982.25safe0.30–2.240.13–1.840.43–4.08safer0.05–2.490.00–2.060.00–4.56
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.253.798.04safe2.38–6.112.05–5.534.43–11.64safer1.89–6.601.58–6.003.48–12.60
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9812.5325.51safe9.06–16.908.96–16.0918.02–32.99safer7.96–18.008.00–17.0515.97–35.04
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction7.266.8914.15safe4.32–10.204.21–9.578.53–19.78safer3.49–11.033.47–10.316.96–21.34
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.232.715.95safe1.35–5.121.06–4.372.41–9.48safer0.81–5.660.57–4.861.37–10.52
Corners
47%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.278.81safe2.32–6.752.27–6.274.59–13.02safer1.75–7.321.74–6.813.49–14.13
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.2349.20safe44.44–58.0342.41–55.98safer42.77–59.6940.74–57.65
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction451426877safe384–518360–493743–1011safer365–536342–510708–1046
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction71.9372.99safe67.90–75.9668.66–77.31safer66.61–77.2567.35–78.62
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4813.1225.59safe9.64–15.3110.17–16.0619.81–31.38safer8.88–16.079.42–16.8118.31–32.88
Offsides
47%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.323.03safe0.55–2.870.23–2.410.78–5.29safer0.25–3.170.00–2.700.19–5.87
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.184.09safe0.86–2.961.05–3.311.91–6.26safer0.59–3.220.76–3.601.35–6.82
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.885.61safe1.29–4.161.32–4.442.61–8.60safer0.90–4.550.90–4.861.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 0.98 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.06 | 2.25 0.43–4.08 0.00–4.56 | 43% 28% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.38–6.11 1.89–6.60 | 3.79 2.05–5.53 1.58–6.00 | 8.04 4.43–11.64 3.48–12.60 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.98 9.06–16.90 7.96–18.00 | 12.53 8.96–16.09 8.00–17.05 | 25.51 18.02–32.99 15.97–35.04 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.26 4.32–10.20 3.49–11.03 | 6.89 4.21–9.57 3.47–10.31 | 14.15 8.53–19.78 6.96–21.34 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.35–5.12 0.81–5.66 | 2.71 1.06–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 5.95 2.41–9.48 1.37–10.52 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.32–6.75 1.75–7.32 | 4.27 2.27–6.27 1.74–6.81 | 8.81 4.59–13.02 3.49–14.13 | 47% 14% 40% |
| Possession % | 51.23 44.44–58.03 42.77–59.69 | 49.20 42.41–55.98 40.74–57.65 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 451 384–518 365–536 | 426 360–493 342–510 | 877 743–1011 708–1046 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.93 67.90–75.96 66.61–77.25 | 72.99 68.66–77.31 67.35–78.62 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 12.48 9.64–15.31 8.88–16.07 | 13.12 10.17–16.06 9.42–16.81 | 25.59 19.81–31.38 18.31–32.88 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.32 0.23–2.41 0.00–2.70 | 3.03 0.78–5.29 0.19–5.87 | 47% 24% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.59–3.22 | 2.18 1.05–3.31 0.76–3.60 | 4.09 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 2.88 1.32–4.44 0.90–4.86 | 5.61 2.61–8.60 1.80–9.41 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+