Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
28%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.092.33safe0.27–2.210.24–1.950.51–4.15safer0.02–2.460.01–2.180.03–4.63
Shots on target
51%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.123.527.64safe2.25–5.981.78–5.264.03–11.24safer1.76–6.471.31–5.733.08–12.20
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3110.2424.55safe10.39–18.246.67–13.8017.06–32.04safer9.29–19.335.72–14.7615.01–34.09
Shots in box
58%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.236.9115.15safe5.29–11.184.23–9.599.52–20.77safer4.46–12.003.50–10.337.96–22.34
Blocked shots
63%
15%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.642.295.93safe1.76–5.520.64–3.942.39–9.46safer1.21–6.060.14–4.431.35–10.50
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.019.41safe3.18–7.612.01–6.015.20–13.62safer2.61–8.181.48–6.554.09–14.73
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.3549.86safe42.56–56.1443.07–56.64safer40.89–57.8141.40–58.31
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction428434862safe360–495368–501728–996safer342–513350–518693–1031
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction69.5172.03safe65.48–73.5367.70–76.35safer64.18–74.8366.39–77.66
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8814.1727.05safe10.04–15.7211.23–17.1221.27–32.84safer9.29–16.4710.48–17.8719.77–34.34
Offsides
37%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.643.23safe0.43–2.750.54–2.730.98–5.48safer0.13–3.060.25–3.020.39–6.07
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.263.92safe0.61–2.711.13–3.391.74–6.10safer0.34–2.980.84–3.681.19–6.66
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
33%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.755.04safe0.85–3.731.20–4.312.05–8.04safer0.47–4.110.77–4.741.24–8.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.09 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.33 0.51–4.15 0.03–4.63 | 40% 28% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.12 2.25–5.98 1.76–6.47 | 3.52 1.78–5.26 1.31–5.73 | 7.64 4.03–11.24 3.08–12.20 | 51% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.31 10.39–18.24 9.29–19.33 | 10.24 6.67–13.80 5.72–14.76 | 24.55 17.06–32.04 15.01–34.09 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.23 5.29–11.18 4.46–12.00 | 6.91 4.23–9.59 3.50–10.33 | 15.15 9.52–20.77 7.96–22.34 | 58% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.76–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 2.29 0.64–3.94 0.14–4.43 | 5.93 2.39–9.46 1.35–10.50 | 63% 15% 22% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.61 2.61–8.18 | 4.01 2.01–6.01 1.48–6.55 | 9.41 5.20–13.62 4.09–14.73 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 49.35 42.56–56.14 40.89–57.81 | 49.86 43.07–56.64 41.40–58.31 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 428 360–495 342–513 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 862 728–996 693–1031 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.51 65.48–73.53 64.18–74.83 | 72.03 67.70–76.35 66.39–77.66 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 12.88 10.04–15.72 9.29–16.47 | 14.17 11.23–17.12 10.48–17.87 | 27.05 21.27–32.84 19.77–34.34 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.06 | 1.64 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.02 | 3.23 0.98–5.48 0.39–6.07 | 37% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.34–2.98 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 3.92 1.74–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.29 0.85–3.73 0.47–4.11 | 2.75 1.20–4.31 0.77–4.74 | 5.04 2.05–8.04 1.24–8.85 | 33% 18% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+