Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.212.55safe0.37–2.310.36–2.070.73–4.37safer0.12–2.560.13–2.300.25–4.85
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.123.767.89safe2.26–5.982.02–5.514.28–11.49safer1.77–6.471.56–5.973.32–12.45
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6511.5625.21safe9.73–17.588.00–15.1217.73–32.70safer8.64–18.677.04–16.0815.67–34.75
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.497.4415.93safe5.55–11.434.76–10.1210.31–21.55safer4.72–12.264.02–10.868.74–23.12
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.392.966.35safe1.51–5.271.31–4.622.82–9.89safer0.97–5.820.82–5.111.78–10.92
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.484.229.70safe3.27–7.692.22–6.225.49–13.91safer2.69–8.271.68–6.754.38–15.02
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction54.1546.41safe47.36–60.9439.63–53.20safer45.69–62.6137.96–54.87
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction487409896safe420–554342–475762–1029safer401–572325–493726–1065
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction71.4970.73safe67.46–75.5266.41–75.05safer66.17–76.8165.10–76.36
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6113.1326.74safe10.77–16.4510.19–16.0820.96–32.52safer10.02–17.209.44–16.8319.46–34.03
Offsides
52%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.263.14safe0.72–3.040.17–2.360.89–5.40safer0.42–3.340.00–2.650.30–5.99
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.131.914.05safe1.09–3.180.78–3.041.87–6.22safer0.82–3.450.49–3.331.31–6.78
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.592.765.35safe1.15–4.021.21–4.322.36–8.34safer0.76–4.410.78–4.741.55–9.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.55 0.73–4.37 0.25–4.85 | 40% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.12 2.26–5.98 1.77–6.47 | 3.76 2.02–5.51 1.56–5.97 | 7.89 4.28–11.49 3.32–12.45 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.65 9.73–17.58 8.64–18.67 | 11.56 8.00–15.12 7.04–16.08 | 25.21 17.73–32.70 15.67–34.75 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.49 5.55–11.43 4.72–12.26 | 7.44 4.76–10.12 4.02–10.86 | 15.93 10.31–21.55 8.74–23.12 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.51–5.27 0.97–5.82 | 2.96 1.31–4.62 0.82–5.11 | 6.35 2.82–9.89 1.78–10.92 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.27–7.69 2.69–8.27 | 4.22 2.22–6.22 1.68–6.75 | 9.70 5.49–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 54.15 47.36–60.94 45.69–62.61 | 46.41 39.63–53.20 37.96–54.87 | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 487 420–554 401–572 | 409 342–475 325–493 | 896 762–1029 726–1065 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.49 67.46–75.52 66.17–76.81 | 70.73 66.41–75.05 65.10–76.36 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 13.61 10.77–16.45 10.02–17.20 | 13.13 10.19–16.08 9.44–16.83 | 26.74 20.96–32.52 19.46–34.03 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.26 0.17–2.36 0.00–2.65 | 3.14 0.89–5.40 0.30–5.99 | 52% 23% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.09–3.18 0.82–3.45 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 4.05 1.87–6.22 1.31–6.78 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 2.76 1.21–4.32 0.78–4.74 | 5.35 2.36–8.34 1.55–9.16 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+