Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
86%
homeawaytotalprediction3.040.543.58safe2.07–4.000.00–1.401.76–5.40safer1.82–4.260.00–1.631.28–5.88
Shots on target
96%
homeawaytotalprediction7.872.029.89safe6.01–9.730.27–3.766.28–13.49safer5.52–10.220.00–4.235.33–14.45
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction20.766.8027.56safe16.83–24.683.24–10.3620.07–35.05safer15.74–25.782.28–11.3218.02–37.10
Shots in box
100%
homeawaytotalprediction14.273.4517.72safe11.32–17.210.77–6.1312.09–23.34safer10.49–18.040.03–6.8710.53–24.91
Blocked shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction4.851.556.40safe2.97–6.730.00–3.212.87–9.94safer2.43–7.280.00–3.701.83–10.98
Corners
94%
homeawaytotalprediction7.702.4010.10safe5.49–9.910.40–4.405.89–14.32safer4.91–10.490.00–4.944.78–15.42
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction67.1132.59safe60.32–73.9025.81–39.37safer58.65–75.5724.13–41.05
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction619300919safe552–687234–366786–1053safer534–705216–384750–1089
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction83.0569.29safe79.02–87.0864.97–73.62safer77.73–88.3763.66–74.93
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3513.6626.01safe9.51–15.1810.72–16.6120.22–31.79safer8.75–15.949.97–17.3518.72–33.29
Offsides
62%
20%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.123.33safe1.05–3.370.03–2.211.07–5.58safer0.74–3.670.00–2.500.48–6.17
Yellow cards
20%
17%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.714.23safe0.48–2.571.58–3.842.06–6.41safer0.21–2.841.29–4.131.50–6.97
Red cards
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.160.23safe0.00–0.230.00–0.350.00–0.58safer0.00–0.380.00–0.480.00–0.86
GK saves
86%
homeawaytotalprediction1.544.696.24safe0.11–2.983.14–6.253.25–9.23safer0.00–3.372.71–6.682.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.04 2.07–4.00 1.82–4.26 | 0.54 0.00–1.40 0.00–1.63 | 3.58 1.76–5.40 1.28–5.88 | 86% |
| Shots on target | 7.87 6.01–9.73 5.52–10.22 | 2.02 0.27–3.76 0.00–4.23 | 9.89 6.28–13.49 5.33–14.45 | 96% |
| Total shots | 20.76 16.83–24.68 15.74–25.78 | 6.80 3.24–10.36 2.28–11.32 | 27.56 20.07–35.05 18.02–37.10 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 14.27 11.32–17.21 10.49–18.04 | 3.45 0.77–6.13 0.03–6.87 | 17.72 12.09–23.34 10.53–24.91 | 100% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 2.97–6.73 2.43–7.28 | 1.55 0.00–3.21 0.00–3.70 | 6.40 2.87–9.94 1.83–10.98 | 87% |
| Corners | 7.70 5.49–9.91 4.91–10.49 | 2.40 0.40–4.40 0.00–4.94 | 10.10 5.89–14.32 4.78–15.42 | 94% |
| Possession % | 67.11 60.32–73.90 58.65–75.57 | 32.59 25.81–39.37 24.13–41.05 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 619 552–687 534–705 | 300 234–366 216–384 | 919 786–1053 750–1089 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.05 79.02–87.08 77.73–88.37 | 69.29 64.97–73.62 63.66–74.93 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 12.35 9.51–15.18 8.75–15.94 | 13.66 10.72–16.61 9.97–17.35 | 26.01 20.22–31.79 18.72–33.29 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.21 1.05–3.37 0.74–3.67 | 1.12 0.03–2.21 0.00–2.50 | 3.33 1.07–5.58 0.48–6.17 | 62% 20% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.57 0.21–2.84 | 2.71 1.58–3.84 1.29–4.13 | 4.23 2.06–6.41 1.50–6.97 | 20% 17% 63% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% 14% |
| GK saves | 1.54 0.11–2.98 0.00–3.37 | 4.69 3.14–6.25 2.71–6.68 | 6.24 3.25–9.23 2.43–10.04 | 86% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.