Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
15%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.712.553.26safe0.00–1.671.70–3.411.43–5.08safer0.00–1.931.47–3.630.95–5.56
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction2.356.488.83safe0.49–4.214.74–8.225.23–12.44safer0.00–4.704.27–8.694.27–13.39
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction8.0717.3725.44safe4.15–12.0013.81–20.9317.95–32.93safer3.06–13.0912.85–21.8915.90–34.98
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction4.2811.9016.18safe1.34–7.229.21–14.5810.55–21.80safer0.51–8.058.48–15.318.99–23.37
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction2.134.486.60safe0.25–4.012.82–6.133.07–10.14safer0.00–4.552.33–6.622.03–11.17
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction2.636.759.38safe0.41–4.844.75–8.755.17–13.59safer0.00–5.424.22–9.284.06–14.70
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction32.2668.22safe25.47–39.0561.43–75.00safer23.80–40.7259.76–76.68
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction307595902safe239–374529–662768–1035safer221–392511–679732–1071
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction63.9981.72safe59.96–68.0277.40–86.05safer58.67–69.3176.09–87.36
Fouls
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4413.0227.46safe11.61–17.2810.07–15.9621.68–33.24safer10.85–18.049.32–16.7120.17–34.75
Offsides
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.322.183.49safe0.16–2.481.08–3.271.24–5.75safer0.00–2.780.80–3.560.65–6.34
Yellow cards
55%
17%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.165.12safe1.91–4.011.03–3.292.94–7.30safer1.65–4.280.74–3.582.39–7.86
Red cards
20%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction0.240.110.35safe0.08–0.410.00–0.290.00–0.70safer0.00–0.560.00–0.430.00–0.98
GK saves
77%
homeawaytotalprediction4.121.805.93safe2.69–5.560.25–3.362.94–8.92safer2.30–5.950.00–3.792.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.71 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.93 | 2.55 1.70–3.41 1.47–3.63 | 3.26 1.43–5.08 0.95–5.56 | 15% 77% |
| Shots on target | 2.35 0.49–4.21 0.00–4.70 | 6.48 4.74–8.22 4.27–8.69 | 8.83 5.23–12.44 4.27–13.39 | 89% |
| Total shots | 8.07 4.15–12.00 3.06–13.09 | 17.37 13.81–20.93 12.85–21.89 | 25.44 17.95–32.93 15.90–34.98 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 4.28 1.34–7.22 0.51–8.05 | 11.90 9.21–14.58 8.48–15.31 | 16.18 10.55–21.80 8.99–23.37 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 2.13 0.25–4.01 0.00–4.55 | 4.48 2.82–6.13 2.33–6.62 | 6.60 3.07–10.14 2.03–11.17 | 77% |
| Corners | 2.63 0.41–4.84 0.00–5.42 | 6.75 4.75–8.75 4.22–9.28 | 9.38 5.17–13.59 4.06–14.70 | 89% |
| Possession % | 32.26 25.47–39.05 23.80–40.72 | 68.22 61.43–75.00 59.76–76.68 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 307 239–374 221–392 | 595 529–662 511–679 | 902 768–1035 732–1071 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.99 59.96–68.02 58.67–69.31 | 81.72 77.40–86.05 76.09–87.36 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 14.44 11.61–17.28 10.85–18.04 | 13.02 10.07–15.96 9.32–16.71 | 27.46 21.68–33.24 20.17–34.75 | 57% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.32 0.16–2.48 0.00–2.78 | 2.18 1.08–3.27 0.80–3.56 | 3.49 1.24–5.75 0.65–6.34 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 2.96 1.91–4.01 1.65–4.28 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 5.12 2.94–7.30 2.39–7.86 | 55% 17% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.24 0.08–0.41 0.00–0.56 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.35 0.00–0.70 0.00–0.98 | 20% 72% |
| GK saves | 4.12 2.69–5.56 2.30–5.95 | 1.80 0.25–3.36 0.00–3.79 | 5.93 2.94–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 77% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.