Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
26%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction0.951.552.50safe0.00–1.920.70–2.400.68–4.32safer0.00–2.170.47–2.630.20–4.80
Shots on target
28%
13%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.634.778.40safe1.77–5.493.02–6.514.79–12.00safer1.28–5.982.56–6.973.84–12.96
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1613.1525.32safe8.24–16.099.59–16.7217.83–32.81safer7.15–17.188.63–17.6815.78–34.86
Shots in box
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction7.059.3216.37safe4.11–9.996.64–12.0010.75–21.99safer3.28–10.825.90–12.749.18–23.56
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.853.657.50safe1.97–5.732.00–5.303.96–11.03safer1.42–6.271.51–5.802.93–12.07
Corners
45%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.489.11safe2.42–6.842.48–6.484.89–13.32safer1.84–7.421.94–7.013.78–14.43
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.2954.51safe38.50–52.0847.73–61.30safer36.83–53.7546.06–62.97
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction377453829safe309–444386–519696–963safer291–462369–537660–999
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction68.0972.91safe64.06–72.1268.59–77.24safer62.76–73.4167.28–78.54
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3113.5027.81safe11.47–17.1510.56–16.4522.03–33.59safer10.72–17.919.81–17.1920.53–35.10
Offsides
22%
20%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.352.283.62safe0.18–2.511.18–3.371.37–5.87safer0.00–2.810.90–3.660.78–6.46
Yellow cards
49%
18%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.204.85safe1.60–3.701.07–3.332.67–7.03safer1.34–3.970.78–3.622.12–7.59
Red cards
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.100.26safe0.00–0.320.00–0.280.00–0.61safer0.00–0.470.00–0.420.00–0.89
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.042.555.59safe1.61–4.480.99–4.102.60–8.58safer1.22–4.870.57–4.531.79–9.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.95 0.00–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 1.55 0.70–2.40 0.47–2.63 | 2.50 0.68–4.32 0.20–4.80 | 23% 26% 51% |
| Shots on target | 3.63 1.77–5.49 1.28–5.98 | 4.77 3.02–6.51 2.56–6.97 | 8.40 4.79–12.00 3.84–12.96 | 28% 13% 59% |
| Total shots | 12.16 8.24–16.09 7.15–17.18 | 13.15 9.59–16.72 8.63–17.68 | 25.32 17.83–32.81 15.78–34.86 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.05 4.11–9.99 3.28–10.82 | 9.32 6.64–12.00 5.90–12.74 | 16.37 10.75–21.99 9.18–23.56 | 25% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 1.97–5.73 1.42–6.27 | 3.65 2.00–5.30 1.51–5.80 | 7.50 3.96–11.03 2.93–12.07 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 4.63 2.42–6.84 1.84–7.42 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.94–7.01 | 9.11 4.89–13.32 3.78–14.43 | 45% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 45.29 38.50–52.08 36.83–53.75 | 54.51 47.73–61.30 46.06–62.97 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 377 309–444 291–462 | 453 386–519 369–537 | 829 696–963 660–999 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.09 64.06–72.12 62.76–73.41 | 72.91 68.59–77.24 67.28–78.54 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 14.31 11.47–17.15 10.72–17.91 | 13.50 10.56–16.45 9.81–17.19 | 27.81 22.03–33.59 20.53–35.10 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.18–2.51 0.00–2.81 | 2.28 1.18–3.37 0.90–3.66 | 3.62 1.37–5.87 0.78–6.46 | 22% 20% 58% |
| Yellow cards | 2.65 1.60–3.70 1.34–3.97 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.85 2.67–7.03 2.12–7.59 | 49% 18% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 14% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 2.55 0.99–4.10 0.57–4.53 | 5.59 2.60–8.58 1.79–9.39 | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.