Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
65%
20%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.050.862.91safe1.08–3.010.01–1.711.08–4.73safer0.83–3.270.00–1.940.60–5.21
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.073.319.38safe4.21–7.931.57–5.055.78–12.99safer3.72–8.421.10–5.524.82–13.94
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction17.7410.0327.77safe13.81–21.666.47–13.5920.28–35.26safer12.72–22.755.51–14.5518.23–37.31
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.716.1617.88safe8.77–14.663.48–8.8412.25–23.50safer7.94–15.492.74–9.5810.69–25.07
Blocked shots
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.432.697.12safe2.55–6.311.03–4.343.58–10.65safer2.00–6.860.54–4.832.55–11.69
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.503.459.94safe4.28–8.711.45–5.455.73–14.16safer3.71–9.280.91–5.984.62–15.26
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction56.9443.04safe50.15–63.7336.26–49.83safer48.48–65.4034.59–51.50
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction508374883safe441–576308–441749–1016safer423–594290–458713–1052
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction73.8569.68safe69.82–77.8865.35–74.00safer68.53–79.1764.04–75.31
Fouls
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6514.6326.29safe8.82–14.4911.69–17.5820.50–32.07safer8.06–15.2510.94–18.3219.00–33.57
Offsides
66%
18%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.421.133.55safe1.26–3.580.04–2.221.29–5.80safer0.96–3.880.00–2.510.71–6.39
Yellow cards
20%
18%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.462.604.07safe0.41–2.511.47–3.731.89–6.24safer0.15–2.781.18–4.021.33–6.80
Red cards
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.160.23safe0.00–0.240.00–0.350.00–0.58safer0.00–0.380.00–0.480.00–0.86
GK saves
20%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.313.886.19safe0.87–3.742.33–5.443.20–9.18safer0.48–4.131.90–5.862.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.05 1.08–3.01 0.83–3.27 | 0.86 0.01–1.71 0.00–1.94 | 2.91 1.08–4.73 0.60–5.21 | 65% 20% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.07 4.21–7.93 3.72–8.42 | 3.31 1.57–5.05 1.10–5.52 | 9.38 5.78–12.99 4.82–13.94 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 17.74 13.81–21.66 12.72–22.75 | 10.03 6.47–13.59 5.51–14.55 | 27.77 20.28–35.26 18.23–37.31 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 11.71 8.77–14.66 7.94–15.49 | 6.16 3.48–8.84 2.74–9.58 | 17.88 12.25–23.50 10.69–25.07 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.55–6.31 2.00–6.86 | 2.69 1.03–4.34 0.54–4.83 | 7.12 3.58–10.65 2.55–11.69 | 68% 20% |
| Corners | 6.50 4.28–8.71 3.71–9.28 | 3.45 1.45–5.45 0.91–5.98 | 9.94 5.73–14.16 4.62–15.26 | 79% |
| Possession % | 56.94 50.15–63.73 48.48–65.40 | 43.04 36.26–49.83 34.59–51.50 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 508 441–576 423–594 | 374 308–441 290–458 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.85 69.82–77.88 68.53–79.17 | 69.68 65.35–74.00 64.04–75.31 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.65 8.82–14.49 8.06–15.25 | 14.63 11.69–17.58 10.94–18.32 | 26.29 20.50–32.07 19.00–33.57 | 25% 69% |
| Offsides | 2.42 1.26–3.58 0.96–3.88 | 1.13 0.04–2.22 0.00–2.51 | 3.55 1.29–5.80 0.71–6.39 | 66% 18% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.51 0.15–2.78 | 2.60 1.47–3.73 1.18–4.02 | 4.07 1.89–6.24 1.33–6.80 | 20% 18% 62% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.87–3.74 0.48–4.13 | 3.88 2.33–5.44 1.90–5.86 | 6.19 3.20–9.18 2.38–9.99 | 20% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.