Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.082.40safe0.35–2.290.22–1.930.57–4.22safer0.10–2.540.00–2.160.09–4.70
Shots on target
55%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.748.37safe2.76–6.492.00–5.494.76–11.97safer2.27–6.981.53–5.953.81–12.93
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3910.8225.21safe10.46–18.317.26–14.3917.72–32.70safer9.37–19.406.30–15.3415.67–34.75
Shots in box
69%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.406.8616.27safe6.46–12.354.18–9.5510.64–21.89safer5.63–13.173.45–10.289.08–23.46
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.632.936.56safe1.75–5.521.28–4.583.03–10.10safer1.21–6.060.78–5.071.99–11.13
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.309.69safe3.18–7.602.30–6.305.48–13.91safer2.60–8.181.77–6.844.37–15.01
Possession %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction46.6853.68safe39.89–53.4746.90–60.47safer38.22–55.1445.23–62.14
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction399454853safe332–466388–521719–987safer313–484370–538684–1022
Pass accuracy %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction67.3874.01safe63.35–71.4169.69–78.33safer62.05–72.7068.38–79.64
Fouls
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2913.7627.06safe10.46–16.1310.82–16.7121.27–32.84safer9.70–16.8910.07–17.4519.77–34.34
Offsides
47%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.323.06safe0.58–2.900.23–2.410.80–5.31safer0.28–3.200.00–2.700.21–5.90
Yellow cards
31%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.534.55safe0.97–3.071.40–3.662.37–6.73safer0.71–3.341.11–3.951.81–7.29
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.27safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.470.00–0.90
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.185.73safe1.12–3.991.62–4.742.74–8.72safer0.73–4.381.20–5.161.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.08 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.40 0.57–4.22 0.09–4.70 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.76–6.49 2.27–6.98 | 3.74 2.00–5.49 1.53–5.95 | 8.37 4.76–11.97 3.81–12.93 | 55% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.39 10.46–18.31 9.37–19.40 | 10.82 7.26–14.39 6.30–15.34 | 25.21 17.72–32.70 15.67–34.75 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.40 6.46–12.35 5.63–13.17 | 6.86 4.18–9.55 3.45–10.28 | 16.27 10.64–21.89 9.08–23.46 | 69% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 2.93 1.28–4.58 0.78–5.07 | 6.56 3.03–10.10 1.99–11.13 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.60 2.60–8.18 | 4.30 2.30–6.30 1.77–6.84 | 9.69 5.48–13.91 4.37–15.01 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 46.68 39.89–53.47 38.22–55.14 | 53.68 46.90–60.47 45.23–62.14 | — | 32% 64% |
| Passes | 399 332–466 313–484 | 454 388–521 370–538 | 853 719–987 684–1022 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.38 63.35–71.41 62.05–72.70 | 74.01 69.69–78.33 68.38–79.64 | — | 18% 79% |
| Fouls | 13.29 10.46–16.13 9.70–16.89 | 13.76 10.82–16.71 10.07–17.45 | 27.06 21.27–32.84 19.77–34.34 | 43% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.32 0.23–2.41 0.00–2.70 | 3.06 0.80–5.31 0.21–5.90 | 47% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.71–3.34 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 4.55 2.37–6.73 1.81–7.29 | 31% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.12–3.99 0.73–4.38 | 3.18 1.62–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 5.73 2.74–8.72 1.93–9.54 | 32% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+