Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
15%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.682.543.22safe0.00–1.651.68–3.391.40–5.05safer0.00–1.901.46–3.620.92–5.53
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction2.396.719.10safe0.53–4.264.97–8.455.50–12.71safer0.04–4.754.50–8.924.54–13.67
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction8.3117.8926.20safe4.38–12.2314.33–21.4618.71–33.69safer3.29–13.3213.37–22.4216.66–35.74
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction4.1911.4615.66safe1.25–7.148.78–14.1410.03–21.28safer0.42–7.968.05–14.888.47–22.85
Blocked shots
81%
homeawaytotalprediction2.124.907.02safe0.24–4.003.24–6.553.48–10.55safer0.00–4.552.75–7.042.45–11.59
Corners
83%
homeawaytotalprediction2.866.138.99safe0.65–5.074.13–8.134.78–13.20safer0.07–5.653.60–8.663.67–14.31
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction36.3763.18safe29.58–43.1656.39–69.96safer27.91–44.8354.72–71.63
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction346577924safe279–413511–644790–1057safer261–431494–661754–1093
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction67.3681.72safe63.33–71.3977.39–86.04safer62.04–72.6876.08–87.35
Fouls
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2512.6725.92safe10.41–16.089.72–15.6120.13–31.70safer9.65–16.848.98–16.3618.63–33.20
Offsides
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.532.88safe0.19–2.510.44–2.630.63–5.13safer0.00–2.810.15–2.910.04–5.72
Yellow cards
47%
19%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.472.114.58safe1.42–3.520.98–3.232.40–6.75safer1.16–3.790.69–3.531.84–7.31
Red cards
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.110.28safe0.01–0.330.00–0.300.00–0.63safer0.00–0.480.00–0.430.00–0.91
GK saves
79%
homeawaytotalprediction4.441.936.37safe3.00–5.870.37–3.483.37–9.36safer2.61–6.260.00–3.912.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.68 0.00–1.65 0.00–1.90 | 2.54 1.68–3.39 1.46–3.62 | 3.22 1.40–5.05 0.92–5.53 | 15% 78% |
| Shots on target | 2.39 0.53–4.26 0.04–4.75 | 6.71 4.97–8.45 4.50–8.92 | 9.10 5.50–12.71 4.54–13.67 | 90% |
| Total shots | 8.31 4.38–12.23 3.29–13.32 | 17.89 14.33–21.46 13.37–22.42 | 26.20 18.71–33.69 16.66–35.74 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 4.19 1.25–7.14 0.42–7.96 | 11.46 8.78–14.14 8.05–14.88 | 15.66 10.03–21.28 8.47–22.85 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 2.12 0.24–4.00 0.00–4.55 | 4.90 3.24–6.55 2.75–7.04 | 7.02 3.48–10.55 2.45–11.59 | 81% |
| Corners | 2.86 0.65–5.07 0.07–5.65 | 6.13 4.13–8.13 3.60–8.66 | 8.99 4.78–13.20 3.67–14.31 | 83% |
| Possession % | 36.37 29.58–43.16 27.91–44.83 | 63.18 56.39–69.96 54.72–71.63 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 346 279–413 261–431 | 577 511–644 494–661 | 924 790–1057 754–1093 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.36 63.33–71.39 62.04–72.68 | 81.72 77.39–86.04 76.08–87.35 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 13.25 10.41–16.08 9.65–16.84 | 12.67 9.72–15.61 8.98–16.36 | 25.92 20.13–31.70 18.63–33.20 | 51% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.19–2.51 0.00–2.81 | 1.53 0.44–2.63 0.15–2.91 | 2.88 0.63–5.13 0.04–5.72 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.47 1.42–3.52 1.16–3.79 | 2.11 0.98–3.23 0.69–3.53 | 4.58 2.40–6.75 1.84–7.31 | 47% 19% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 14% 77% |
| GK saves | 4.44 3.00–5.87 2.61–6.26 | 1.93 0.37–3.48 0.00–3.91 | 6.37 3.37–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 79% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.