Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
27%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.392.39safe0.03–1.970.54–2.250.57–4.21safer0.00–2.220.31–2.480.09–4.69
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.944.418.35safe2.08–5.802.67–6.154.75–11.96safer1.59–6.292.20–6.623.79–12.91
Total shots
46%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9413.0125.95safe9.01–16.869.45–16.5718.46–33.44safer7.92–17.968.49–17.5316.41–35.49
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.668.3315.99safe4.72–10.615.65–11.0110.37–21.61safer3.89–11.444.91–11.758.80–23.18
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.386.50safe1.25–5.011.72–5.032.97–10.04safer0.70–5.551.23–5.521.93–11.08
Corners
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.624.829.43safe2.40–6.832.82–6.825.22–13.64safer1.83–7.402.28–7.354.11–14.75
Possession %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction46.3253.22safe39.53–53.1146.44–60.01safer37.86–54.7844.76–61.68
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction409467876safe342–476401–534742–1010safer323–494383–551707–1045
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction70.8376.15safe66.80–74.8671.83–80.48safer65.51–76.1570.52–81.78
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3912.5424.93safe9.55–15.229.60–15.4819.14–30.71safer8.79–15.988.85–16.2317.64–32.21
Offsides
40%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.693.44safe0.59–2.910.60–2.781.18–5.69safer0.29–3.210.31–3.070.59–6.28
Yellow cards
31%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.424.33safe0.86–2.961.29–3.552.15–6.50safer0.59–3.221.00–3.841.59–7.06
Red cards
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.150.30safe0.00–0.310.00–0.330.00–0.65safer0.00–0.460.00–0.470.00–0.93
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.956.00safe1.61–4.491.39–4.513.01–8.99safer1.23–4.870.97–4.932.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 2.39 0.57–4.21 0.09–4.69 | 27% 27% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.94 2.08–5.80 1.59–6.29 | 4.41 2.67–6.15 2.20–6.62 | 8.35 4.75–11.96 3.79–12.91 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.94 9.01–16.86 7.92–17.96 | 13.01 9.45–16.57 8.49–17.53 | 25.95 18.46–33.44 16.41–35.49 | 46% 47% |
| Shots in box | 7.66 4.72–10.61 3.89–11.44 | 8.33 5.65–11.01 4.91–11.75 | 15.99 10.37–21.61 8.80–23.18 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.25–5.01 0.70–5.55 | 3.38 1.72–5.03 1.23–5.52 | 6.50 2.97–10.04 1.93–11.08 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.62 2.40–6.83 1.83–7.40 | 4.82 2.82–6.82 2.28–7.35 | 9.43 5.22–13.64 4.11–14.75 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Possession % | 46.32 39.53–53.11 37.86–54.78 | 53.22 46.44–60.01 44.76–61.68 | — | 32% 64% |
| Passes | 409 342–476 323–494 | 467 401–534 383–551 | 876 742–1010 707–1045 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.83 66.80–74.86 65.51–76.15 | 76.15 71.83–80.48 70.52–81.78 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.39 9.55–15.22 8.79–15.98 | 12.54 9.60–15.48 8.85–16.23 | 24.93 19.14–30.71 17.64–32.21 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 1.69 0.60–2.78 0.31–3.07 | 3.44 1.18–5.69 0.59–6.28 | 40% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.59–3.22 | 2.42 1.29–3.55 1.00–3.84 | 4.33 2.15–6.50 1.59–7.06 | 31% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 76% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.49 1.23–4.87 | 2.95 1.39–4.51 0.97–4.93 | 6.00 3.01–8.99 2.20–9.81 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.