Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
87%
homeawaytotalprediction3.200.623.82safe2.23–4.160.00–1.471.99–5.64safer1.98–4.420.00–1.701.51–6.12
Shots on target
96%
homeawaytotalprediction8.222.3710.60safe6.36–10.080.63–4.126.99–14.20safer5.87–10.570.16–4.586.03–15.16
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction21.417.8629.27safe17.49–25.344.30–11.4221.78–36.76safer16.40–26.433.34–12.3819.73–38.81
Shots in box
99%
homeawaytotalprediction14.523.9418.46safe11.58–17.461.26–6.6212.84–24.08safer10.75–18.290.52–7.3611.27–25.65
Blocked shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction5.441.777.20safe3.56–7.320.11–3.423.67–10.74safer3.01–7.860.00–3.912.63–11.78
Corners
96%
homeawaytotalprediction8.222.3110.52safe6.00–10.430.31–4.316.31–14.74safer5.43–11.000.00–4.845.20–15.85
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction67.1732.18safe60.38–73.9625.40–38.97safer58.71–75.6323.73–40.64
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction626278904safe558–693212–345770–1037safer540–711194–362734–1073
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction83.6269.25safe79.60–87.6564.93–73.57safer78.30–88.9563.62–74.88
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6013.4725.07safe8.76–14.4310.53–16.4219.28–30.85safer8.00–15.199.78–17.1617.78–32.35
Offsides
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.082.66safe0.42–2.740.00–2.170.40–4.91safer0.12–3.040.00–2.460.00–5.50
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.233.75safe0.47–2.561.11–3.361.57–5.93safer0.20–2.830.81–3.651.01–6.48
Red cards
81%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.170.22safe0.00–0.210.00–0.350.00–0.57safer0.00–0.360.00–0.490.00–0.85
GK saves
85%
homeawaytotalprediction1.764.936.69safe0.32–3.203.37–6.483.69–9.68safer0.00–3.582.95–6.912.88–10.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.20 2.23–4.16 1.98–4.42 | 0.62 0.00–1.47 0.00–1.70 | 3.82 1.99–5.64 1.51–6.12 | 87% |
| Shots on target | 8.22 6.36–10.08 5.87–10.57 | 2.37 0.63–4.12 0.16–4.58 | 10.60 6.99–14.20 6.03–15.16 | 96% |
| Total shots | 21.41 17.49–25.34 16.40–26.43 | 7.86 4.30–11.42 3.34–12.38 | 29.27 21.78–36.76 19.73–38.81 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 14.52 11.58–17.46 10.75–18.29 | 3.94 1.26–6.62 0.52–7.36 | 18.46 12.84–24.08 11.27–25.65 | 99% |
| Blocked shots | 5.44 3.56–7.32 3.01–7.86 | 1.77 0.11–3.42 0.00–3.91 | 7.20 3.67–10.74 2.63–11.78 | 89% |
| Corners | 8.22 6.00–10.43 5.43–11.00 | 2.31 0.31–4.31 0.00–4.84 | 10.52 6.31–14.74 5.20–15.85 | 96% |
| Possession % | 67.17 60.38–73.96 58.71–75.63 | 32.18 25.40–38.97 23.73–40.64 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 626 558–693 540–711 | 278 212–345 194–362 | 904 770–1037 734–1073 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.62 79.60–87.65 78.30–88.95 | 69.25 64.93–73.57 63.62–74.88 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 11.60 8.76–14.43 8.00–15.19 | 13.47 10.53–16.42 9.78–17.16 | 25.07 19.28–30.85 17.78–32.35 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.08 0.00–2.17 0.00–2.46 | 2.66 0.40–4.91 0.00–5.50 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.47–2.56 0.20–2.83 | 2.23 1.11–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.01–6.48 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.17 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.49 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% 15% |
| GK saves | 1.76 0.32–3.20 0.00–3.58 | 4.93 3.37–6.48 2.95–6.91 | 6.69 3.69–9.68 2.88–10.49 | 85% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+