Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: O. Ergun
Goals
42%
29%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.210.952.16safe0.25–2.180.09–1.810.34–3.98safer0.00–2.440.00–2.050.00–4.49actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.393.577.95safe2.53–6.241.86–5.284.39–11.52safer2.03–6.741.39–5.743.42–12.49actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4111.7926.19safe10.70–18.118.41–15.1719.11–33.28safer9.67–19.147.48–16.1017.15–35.24actual20.0014.0034.00
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.777.3916.16safe6.25–11.285.09–9.6911.34–20.98safer5.39–12.154.29–10.499.68–22.64actual16.0010.0026.00
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.593.156.74safe2.01–5.181.73–4.563.74–9.74safer1.47–5.711.25–5.052.72–10.76actual7.002.009.00
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.504.479.97safe3.29–7.702.50–6.455.79–14.16safer2.70–8.301.96–6.994.66–15.29actual9.003.0012.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.5440.60safe54.23–66.8634.28–46.92safer52.63–68.4632.69–48.52actual64.0036.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction433287721safe368–498223–352591–850safer350–516205–370555–886actual445253698
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction79.8266.63safe75.60–84.0362.12–71.14safer74.30–85.3460.79–72.47actual82.0073.00
Fouls
84%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1418.1030.25safe9.29–15.0015.16–21.0524.44–36.05safer8.40–15.8914.24–21.9622.64–37.85actual8.0010.0018.00
Offsides
39%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.713.42safe0.51–2.920.55–2.871.05–5.80safer0.16–3.270.21–3.200.38–6.47actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
30%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.624.65safe0.97–3.091.50–3.742.47–6.83safer0.70–3.361.21–4.031.91–7.39actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.460.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.855.29safe1.03–3.851.29–4.402.32–8.26safer0.64–4.240.86–4.831.50–9.08actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 2.00 | 0.95 0.09–1.81 0.00–2.05 | 2.00 | 2.16 0.34–3.98 0.00–4.49 | 4.00 | 42% 29% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.39 2.53–6.24 2.03–6.74 | 4.00 | 3.57 1.86–5.28 1.39–5.74 | 4.00 | 7.95 4.39–11.52 3.42–12.49 | 8.00 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.41 10.70–18.11 9.67–19.14 | 20.00 | 11.79 8.41–15.17 7.48–16.10 | 14.00 | 26.19 19.11–33.28 17.15–35.24 | 34.00 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 8.77 6.25–11.28 5.39–12.15 | 16.00 | 7.39 5.09–9.69 4.29–10.49 | 10.00 | 16.16 11.34–20.98 9.68–22.64 | 26.00 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.59 2.01–5.18 1.47–5.71 | 7.00 | 3.15 1.73–4.56 1.25–5.05 | 2.00 | 6.74 3.74–9.74 2.72–10.76 | 9.00 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.50 3.29–7.70 2.70–8.30 | 9.00 | 4.47 2.50–6.45 1.96–6.99 | 3.00 | 9.97 5.79–14.16 4.66–15.29 | 12.00 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 60.54 54.23–66.86 52.63–68.46 | 64.00 | 40.60 34.28–46.92 32.69–48.52 | 36.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 433 368–498 350–516 | 445 | 287 223–352 205–370 | 253 | 721 591–850 555–886 | 698 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.82 75.60–84.03 74.30–85.34 | 82.00 | 66.63 62.12–71.14 60.79–72.47 | 73.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 12.14 9.29–15.00 8.40–15.89 | 8.00 | 18.10 15.16–21.05 14.24–21.96 | 10.00 | 30.25 24.44–36.05 22.64–37.85 | 18.00 | 84% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.51–2.92 0.16–3.27 | 1.00 | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.21–3.20 | 3.00 | 3.42 1.05–5.80 0.38–6.47 | 4.00 | 39% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.97–3.09 0.70–3.36 | 2.00 | 2.62 1.50–3.74 1.21–4.03 | 2.00 | 4.65 2.47–6.83 1.91–7.39 | 4.00 | 30% 18% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.03–3.85 0.64–4.24 | 2.00 | 2.85 1.29–4.40 0.86–4.83 | 2.00 | 5.29 2.32–8.26 1.50–9.08 | 4.00 | 34% 18% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.