Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: C. Aydin
Goals
41%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.192.57safe0.42–2.340.33–2.050.75–4.39safer0.16–2.600.08–2.300.24–4.90actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.933.418.34safe3.07–6.791.71–5.124.78–11.91safer2.57–7.281.24–5.593.81–12.87actual5.001.006.00
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8910.1024.00safe10.19–17.606.72–13.4816.91–31.08safer9.16–18.635.79–14.4114.95–33.04actual18.007.0025.00
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.257.1115.36safe5.74–10.774.81–9.4110.55–20.18safer4.87–11.634.01–10.218.89–21.84actual12.003.0015.00
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.312.625.93safe1.72–4.891.21–4.042.93–8.93safer1.19–5.430.72–4.521.91–9.95actual6.003.009.00
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.294.139.42safe3.09–7.502.15–6.105.24–13.60safer2.49–8.101.61–6.644.10–14.74actual2.003.005.00
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.2054.77safe37.88–50.5148.45–61.09safer36.28–52.1146.86–62.69actual43.0057.00
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction385461845safe319–450396–525715–975safer302–468379–543680–1010actual350455805
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction80.0383.23safe75.82–84.2578.73–87.74safer74.52–85.5577.40–89.07actual83.0084.00
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0112.5124.52safe9.15–14.879.56–15.4518.71–30.32safer8.27–15.758.64–16.3716.91–32.12actual8.008.0016.00
Offsides
66%
17%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.721.374.09safe1.51–3.930.21–2.541.72–6.46safer1.16–4.270.00–2.871.04–7.14actual6.000.006.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.504.88safe1.33–3.441.38–3.622.71–7.06safer1.06–3.711.09–3.912.15–7.62actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.090.26safe0.02–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.61safer0.00–0.480.00–0.430.00–0.90actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.143.385.52safe0.73–3.561.83–4.932.55–8.49safer0.34–3.951.39–5.371.73–9.31actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.34 0.16–2.60 | 5.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.08–2.30 | 0.00 | 2.57 0.75–4.39 0.24–4.90 | 5.00 | 41% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.07–6.79 2.57–7.28 | 5.00 | 3.41 1.71–5.12 1.24–5.59 | 1.00 | 8.34 4.78–11.91 3.81–12.87 | 6.00 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 13.89 10.19–17.60 9.16–18.63 | 18.00 | 10.10 6.72–13.48 5.79–14.41 | 7.00 | 24.00 16.91–31.08 14.95–33.04 | 25.00 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 8.25 5.74–10.77 4.87–11.63 | 12.00 | 7.11 4.81–9.41 4.01–10.21 | 3.00 | 15.36 10.55–20.18 8.89–21.84 | 15.00 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.72–4.89 1.19–5.43 | 6.00 | 2.62 1.21–4.04 0.72–4.52 | 3.00 | 5.93 2.93–8.93 1.91–9.95 | 9.00 | 53% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.09–7.50 2.49–8.10 | 2.00 | 4.13 2.15–6.10 1.61–6.64 | 3.00 | 9.42 5.24–13.60 4.10–14.74 | 5.00 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 44.20 37.88–50.51 36.28–52.11 | 43.00 | 54.77 48.45–61.09 46.86–62.69 | 57.00 | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 385 319–450 302–468 | 350 | 461 396–525 379–543 | 455 | 845 715–975 680–1010 | 805 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.03 75.82–84.25 74.52–85.55 | 83.00 | 83.23 78.73–87.74 77.40–89.07 | 84.00 | — | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 12.01 9.15–14.87 8.27–15.75 | 8.00 | 12.51 9.56–15.45 8.64–16.37 | 8.00 | 24.52 18.71–30.32 16.91–32.12 | 16.00 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.72 1.51–3.93 1.16–4.27 | 6.00 | 1.37 0.21–2.54 0.00–2.87 | 0.00 | 4.09 1.72–6.46 1.04–7.14 | 6.00 | 66% 17% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 2.39 1.33–3.44 1.06–3.71 | 1.00 | 2.50 1.38–3.62 1.09–3.91 | 2.00 | 4.88 2.71–7.06 2.15–7.62 | 3.00 | 39% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.02–0.32 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 0.00 | 14% 78% |
| GK saves | 2.14 0.73–3.56 0.34–3.95 | 1.00 | 3.38 1.83–4.93 1.39–5.37 | 1.00 | 5.52 2.55–8.49 1.73–9.31 | 2.00 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.