Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: G. Hasova
Goals
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.450.693.14safe1.49–3.410.00–1.551.32–4.97safer1.23–3.670.00–1.800.81–5.47actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
94%
homeawaytotalprediction6.641.748.38safe4.78–8.490.03–3.454.82–11.94safer4.28–8.990.00–3.923.85–12.91actual6.001.007.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction17.935.5623.49safe14.23–21.642.18–8.9416.41–30.57safer13.20–22.671.25–9.8714.45–32.53actual21.008.0029.00
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction12.423.8716.29safe9.91–14.941.57–6.1711.48–21.11safer9.04–15.800.77–6.979.81–22.77actual16.004.0020.00
Blocked shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction4.851.706.54safe3.26–6.430.28–3.113.55–9.54safer2.73–6.970.00–3.602.52–10.56actual6.000.006.00
Corners
92%
homeawaytotalprediction7.372.549.92safe5.17–9.580.57–4.525.74–14.10safer4.57–10.170.03–5.064.60–15.24actual10.001.0011.00
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction66.2234.81safe59.90–72.5428.49–41.13safer58.31–74.1326.89–42.72actual73.0027.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction588297885safe523–654232–361755–1015safer505–671214–379720–1050actual686252938
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction87.6373.67safe83.41–91.8469.16–78.17safer82.11–93.1567.83–79.50actual91.0078.00
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4913.1224.62safe8.64–14.3510.18–16.0718.81–30.42safer7.75–15.239.26–16.9917.01–32.22actual11.0011.0022.00
Offsides
46%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.513.35safe0.63–3.050.35–2.670.98–5.72safer0.29–3.390.02–3.010.30–6.40actual2.004.006.00
Yellow cards
22%
18%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.534.07safe0.48–2.591.41–3.651.89–6.24safer0.21–2.861.12–3.941.33–6.80actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.120.16safe0.00–0.190.00–0.320.00–0.50safer0.00–0.340.00–0.460.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
79%
homeawaytotalprediction1.363.695.06safe0.00–2.782.14–5.252.09–8.03safer0.00–3.171.71–5.681.27–8.85actual0.004.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.45 1.49–3.41 1.23–3.67 | 3.00 | 0.69 0.00–1.55 0.00–1.80 | 0.00 | 3.14 1.32–4.97 0.81–5.47 | 3.00 | 76% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.64 4.78–8.49 4.28–8.99 | 6.00 | 1.74 0.03–3.45 0.00–3.92 | 1.00 | 8.38 4.82–11.94 3.85–12.91 | 7.00 | 94% |
| Total shots | 17.93 14.23–21.64 13.20–22.67 | 21.00 | 5.56 2.18–8.94 1.25–9.87 | 8.00 | 23.49 16.41–30.57 14.45–32.53 | 29.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 12.42 9.91–14.94 9.04–15.80 | 16.00 | 3.87 1.57–6.17 0.77–6.97 | 4.00 | 16.29 11.48–21.11 9.81–22.77 | 20.00 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 3.26–6.43 2.73–6.97 | 6.00 | 1.70 0.28–3.11 0.00–3.60 | 0.00 | 6.54 3.55–9.54 2.52–10.56 | 6.00 | 86% |
| Corners | 7.37 5.17–9.58 4.57–10.17 | 10.00 | 2.54 0.57–4.52 0.03–5.06 | 1.00 | 9.92 5.74–14.10 4.60–15.24 | 11.00 | 92% |
| Possession % | 66.22 59.90–72.54 58.31–74.13 | 73.00 | 34.81 28.49–41.13 26.89–42.72 | 27.00 | — | — | 97% |
| Passes | 588 523–654 505–671 | 686 | 297 232–361 214–379 | 252 | 885 755–1015 720–1050 | 938 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.63 83.41–91.84 82.11–93.15 | 91.00 | 73.67 69.16–78.17 67.83–79.50 | 78.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 11.49 8.64–14.35 7.75–15.23 | 11.00 | 13.12 10.18–16.07 9.26–16.99 | 11.00 | 24.62 18.81–30.42 17.01–32.22 | 22.00 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.63–3.05 0.29–3.39 | 2.00 | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.02–3.01 | 4.00 | 3.35 0.98–5.72 0.30–6.40 | 6.00 | 46% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.48–2.59 0.21–2.86 | 3.00 | 2.53 1.41–3.65 1.12–3.94 | 0.00 | 4.07 1.89–6.24 1.33–6.80 | 3.00 | 22% 18% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.36 0.00–2.78 0.00–3.17 | 0.00 | 3.69 2.14–5.25 1.71–5.68 | 4.00 | 5.06 2.09–8.03 1.27–8.85 | 4.00 | 79% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+