Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: O. Aksu
Goals
23%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.722.75safe0.07–1.990.86–2.580.93–4.57safer0.00–2.250.61–2.830.42–5.08actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.908.98safe2.23–5.943.19–6.615.42–12.55safer1.73–6.442.73–7.084.45–13.52actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3914.4926.88safe8.68–16.0911.11–17.8719.80–33.96safer7.65–17.1210.18–18.8017.84–35.92actual26.009.0035.00
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.898.9515.84safe4.37–9.406.65–11.2511.02–20.65safer3.51–10.275.85–12.059.36–22.32actual13.006.0019.00
Blocked shots
28%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.896.78safe1.30–4.472.48–5.313.78–9.78safer0.77–5.001.99–5.792.76–10.80actual10.001.0011.00
Corners
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.365.6710.03safe2.15–6.563.69–7.655.84–14.21safer1.56–7.163.15–8.184.71–15.34actual8.002.0010.00
Possession %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction46.1254.69safe39.80–52.4448.37–61.01safer38.21–54.0346.77–62.61actual50.0050.00
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction385438823safe320–450374–503693–953safer302–468356–521658–988actual349369718
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction81.0585.24safe76.83–85.2780.73–89.74safer75.53–86.5779.40–91.07actual84.0084.00
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1315.6229.75safe11.27–16.9912.67–18.5623.94–35.55safer10.39–17.8711.75–19.4822.14–37.35actual13.0010.0023.00
Offsides
19%
21%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.052.003.05safe0.00–2.260.84–3.170.68–5.43safer0.00–2.610.51–3.500.01–6.10actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.284.51safe1.17–3.281.16–3.402.33–6.69safer0.90–3.560.87–3.691.77–7.25actual0.003.003.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.892.825.72safe1.48–4.311.27–4.382.75–8.68safer1.09–4.700.84–4.811.93–9.50actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.07–1.99 0.00–2.25 | 0.00 | 1.72 0.86–2.58 0.61–2.83 | 2.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 2.00 | 23% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.23–5.94 1.73–6.44 | 5.00 | 4.90 3.19–6.61 2.73–7.08 | 4.00 | 8.98 5.42–12.55 4.45–13.52 | 9.00 | 33% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.39 8.68–16.09 7.65–17.12 | 26.00 | 14.49 11.11–17.87 10.18–18.80 | 9.00 | 26.88 19.80–33.96 17.84–35.92 | 35.00 | 31% 62% |
| Shots in box | 6.89 4.37–9.40 3.51–10.27 | 13.00 | 8.95 6.65–11.25 5.85–12.05 | 6.00 | 15.84 11.02–20.65 9.36–22.32 | 19.00 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 2.88 1.30–4.47 0.77–5.00 | 10.00 | 3.89 2.48–5.31 1.99–5.79 | 1.00 | 6.78 3.78–9.78 2.76–10.80 | 11.00 | 28% 15% 58% |
| Corners | 4.36 2.15–6.56 1.56–7.16 | 8.00 | 5.67 3.69–7.65 3.15–8.18 | 2.00 | 10.03 5.84–14.21 4.71–15.34 | 10.00 | 28% 60% |
| Possession % | 46.12 39.80–52.44 38.21–54.03 | 50.00 | 54.69 48.37–61.01 46.77–62.61 | 50.00 | — | — | 27% 68% |
| Passes | 385 320–450 302–468 | 349 | 438 374–503 356–521 | 369 | 823 693–953 658–988 | 718 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.05 76.83–85.27 75.53–86.57 | 84.00 | 85.24 80.73–89.74 79.40–91.07 | 84.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 14.13 11.27–16.99 10.39–17.87 | 13.00 | 15.62 12.67–18.56 11.75–19.48 | 10.00 | 29.75 23.94–35.55 22.14–37.35 | 23.00 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.05 0.00–2.26 0.00–2.61 | 0.00 | 2.00 0.84–3.17 0.51–3.50 | 2.00 | 3.05 0.68–5.43 0.01–6.10 | 2.00 | 19% 21% 59% |
| Yellow cards | 2.23 1.17–3.28 0.90–3.56 | 0.00 | 2.28 1.16–3.40 0.87–3.69 | 3.00 | 4.51 2.33–6.69 1.77–7.25 | 3.00 | 39% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 1.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 1.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.48–4.31 1.09–4.70 | 2.00 | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.81 | 5.00 | 5.72 2.75–8.68 1.93–9.50 | 7.00 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.