Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. Karaoglan
Goals
68%
19%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.180.853.03safe1.22–3.140.00–1.711.21–4.85safer0.96–3.400.00–1.960.70–5.36actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction6.912.669.57safe5.05–8.770.96–4.376.01–13.14safer4.56–9.270.49–4.845.04–14.11actual9.001.0010.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction19.997.3627.35safe16.29–23.693.98–10.7320.26–34.43safer15.26–24.723.05–11.6718.30–36.39actual29.0012.0041.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction12.954.9817.94safe10.44–15.472.68–7.2813.12–22.75safer9.57–16.331.89–8.0811.46–24.42actual20.0010.0030.00
Blocked shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction5.311.817.12safe3.72–6.890.40–3.234.12–10.12safer3.19–7.430.00–3.713.10–11.14actual6.007.0013.00
Corners
91%
homeawaytotalprediction7.402.7110.10safe5.19–9.600.73–4.685.92–14.29safer4.60–10.200.19–5.224.79–15.42actual16.003.0019.00
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction60.9538.06safe54.63–67.2731.74–44.37safer53.04–68.8730.14–45.97actual61.0039.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction502344847safe437–568280–409717–976safer419–585262–426681–1012actual479322801
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction87.2076.61safe82.98–91.4272.10–81.12safer81.68–92.7270.77–82.45actual88.0076.00
Fouls
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2512.7127.96safe12.39–18.109.76–15.6522.15–33.76safer11.50–18.998.85–16.5720.35–35.56actual13.0010.0023.00
Offsides
18%
20%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.102.173.27safe0.00–2.311.00–3.330.90–5.64safer0.00–2.660.67–3.660.22–6.32actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
26%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.594.37safe0.73–2.841.47–3.712.20–6.55safer0.46–3.121.18–4.001.64–7.11actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.310.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.450.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
80%
homeawaytotalprediction1.914.546.45safe0.50–3.332.99–6.093.48–9.42safer0.11–3.722.55–6.532.66–10.24actual1.008.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 1.22–3.14 0.96–3.40 | 1.00 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.96 | 0.00 | 3.03 1.21–4.85 0.70–5.36 | 1.00 | 68% 19% 13% |
| Shots on target | 6.91 5.05–8.77 4.56–9.27 | 9.00 | 2.66 0.96–4.37 0.49–4.84 | 1.00 | 9.57 6.01–13.14 5.04–14.11 | 10.00 | 89% |
| Total shots | 19.99 16.29–23.69 15.26–24.72 | 29.00 | 7.36 3.98–10.73 3.05–11.67 | 12.00 | 27.35 20.26–34.43 18.30–36.39 | 41.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 12.95 10.44–15.47 9.57–16.33 | 20.00 | 4.98 2.68–7.28 1.89–8.08 | 10.00 | 17.94 13.12–22.75 11.46–24.42 | 30.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 5.31 3.72–6.89 3.19–7.43 | 6.00 | 1.81 0.40–3.23 0.00–3.71 | 7.00 | 7.12 4.12–10.12 3.10–11.14 | 13.00 | 87% |
| Corners | 7.40 5.19–9.60 4.60–10.20 | 16.00 | 2.71 0.73–4.68 0.19–5.22 | 3.00 | 10.10 5.92–14.29 4.79–15.42 | 19.00 | 91% |
| Possession % | 60.95 54.63–67.27 53.04–68.87 | 61.00 | 38.06 31.74–44.37 30.14–45.97 | 39.00 | — | — | 92% |
| Passes | 502 437–568 419–585 | 479 | 344 280–409 262–426 | 322 | 847 717–976 681–1012 | 801 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.20 82.98–91.42 81.68–92.72 | 88.00 | 76.61 72.10–81.12 70.77–82.45 | 76.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 15.25 12.39–18.10 11.50–18.99 | 13.00 | 12.71 9.76–15.65 8.85–16.57 | 10.00 | 27.96 22.15–33.76 20.35–35.56 | 23.00 | 65% 28% |
| Offsides | 1.10 0.00–2.31 0.00–2.66 | 1.00 | 2.17 1.00–3.33 0.67–3.66 | 2.00 | 3.27 0.90–5.64 0.22–6.32 | 3.00 | 18% 20% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.73–2.84 0.46–3.12 | 2.00 | 2.59 1.47–3.71 1.18–4.00 | 1.00 | 4.37 2.20–6.55 1.64–7.11 | 3.00 | 26% 18% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 1.91 0.50–3.33 0.11–3.72 | 1.00 | 4.54 2.99–6.09 2.55–6.53 | 8.00 | 6.45 3.48–9.42 2.66–10.24 | 9.00 | 80% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.