Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: M. Turkmen
Goals
22%
22%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.893.00safe0.15–2.071.03–2.751.18–4.82safer0.00–2.330.78–3.000.67–5.33actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction3.485.659.12safe1.62–5.333.94–7.355.56–12.69safer1.12–5.833.47–7.824.59–13.66actual0.004.004.00
Total shots
15%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7115.4826.19safe7.00–14.4112.10–18.8619.11–33.27safer5.97–15.4411.17–19.7917.14–35.23actual11.0015.0026.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.4411.1417.58safe3.92–8.958.84–13.4412.76–22.40safer3.06–9.828.04–14.2411.10–24.06actual5.0011.0016.00
Blocked shots
25%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.643.836.47safe1.06–4.232.42–5.243.47–9.47safer0.52–4.761.93–5.732.45–10.49actual4.003.007.00
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.165.569.73safe1.96–6.373.59–7.545.54–13.91safer1.36–6.963.05–8.084.41–15.04actual6.006.0012.00
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.4453.87safe39.12–51.7547.55–60.19safer37.52–53.3545.96–61.79actual32.0068.00
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction385467853safe320–451403–532723–983safer302–468385–550688–1018actual258565823
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction77.2578.41safe73.03–81.4673.91–82.92safer71.73–82.7672.58–84.25actual75.0087.00
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8913.7327.62safe11.03–16.7410.79–16.6821.81–33.42safer10.14–17.639.87–17.5920.01–35.22actual16.008.0024.00
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.863.74safe0.67–3.090.69–3.021.37–6.11safer0.33–3.440.36–3.350.69–6.79actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
38%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.424.72safe1.25–3.361.30–3.542.54–6.89safer0.97–3.631.01–3.831.98–7.46actual4.003.007.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.585.57safe1.58–4.411.02–4.132.60–8.54safer1.19–4.800.59–4.561.78–9.36actual4.000.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.15–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 0.00 | 1.89 1.03–2.75 0.78–3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 1.18–4.82 0.67–5.33 | 0.00 | 22% 22% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.48 1.62–5.33 1.12–5.83 | 0.00 | 5.65 3.94–7.35 3.47–7.82 | 4.00 | 9.12 5.56–12.69 4.59–13.66 | 4.00 | 19% 71% |
| Total shots | 10.71 7.00–14.41 5.97–15.44 | 11.00 | 15.48 12.10–18.86 11.17–19.79 | 15.00 | 26.19 19.11–33.27 17.14–35.23 | 26.00 | 15% 80% |
| Shots in box | 6.44 3.92–8.95 3.06–9.82 | 5.00 | 11.14 8.84–13.44 8.04–14.24 | 11.00 | 17.58 12.76–22.40 11.10–24.06 | 16.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 2.64 1.06–4.23 0.52–4.76 | 4.00 | 3.83 2.42–5.24 1.93–5.73 | 3.00 | 6.47 3.47–9.47 2.45–10.49 | 7.00 | 25% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 4.16 1.96–6.37 1.36–6.96 | 6.00 | 5.56 3.59–7.54 3.05–8.08 | 6.00 | 9.73 5.54–13.91 4.41–15.04 | 12.00 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 45.44 39.12–51.75 37.52–53.35 | 32.00 | 53.87 47.55–60.19 45.96–61.79 | 68.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 385 320–451 302–468 | 258 | 467 403–532 385–550 | 565 | 853 723–983 688–1018 | 823 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.25 73.03–81.46 71.73–82.76 | 75.00 | 78.41 73.91–82.92 72.58–84.25 | 87.00 | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 13.89 11.03–16.74 10.14–17.63 | 16.00 | 13.73 10.79–16.68 9.87–17.59 | 8.00 | 27.62 21.81–33.42 20.01–35.22 | 24.00 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.33–3.44 | 0.00 | 1.86 0.69–3.02 0.36–3.35 | 1.00 | 3.74 1.37–6.11 0.69–6.79 | 1.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.36 0.97–3.63 | 4.00 | 2.42 1.30–3.54 1.01–3.83 | 3.00 | 4.72 2.54–6.89 1.98–7.46 | 7.00 | 38% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.58–4.41 1.19–4.80 | 4.00 | 2.58 1.02–4.13 0.59–4.56 | 0.00 | 5.57 2.60–8.54 1.78–9.36 | 4.00 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.