Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Y. Kol
Goals
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.222.51safe0.32–2.240.36–2.080.68–4.33safer0.06–2.500.12–2.330.18–4.83actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
32%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.884.768.64safe2.03–5.743.05–6.475.08–12.20safer1.53–6.242.58–6.944.11–13.17actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3813.9426.31safe8.68–16.0810.56–17.3119.23–33.40safer7.64–17.119.63–18.2417.27–35.36actual15.0016.0031.00
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.707.7115.42safe5.19–10.225.41–10.0110.60–20.23safer4.32–11.084.62–10.818.94–21.89actual12.009.0021.00
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.423.116.53safe1.84–5.001.70–4.533.53–9.53safer1.30–5.541.21–5.012.51–10.55actual4.003.007.00
Corners
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.394.598.99safe2.19–6.602.62–6.574.80–13.17safer1.59–7.192.08–7.113.67–14.30actual8.009.0017.00
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction51.6247.84safe45.30–57.9341.52–54.16safer43.70–59.5339.92–55.75actual42.0058.00
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction412410822safe347–478345–475692–952safer329–495328–492657–987actual297425722
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction81.3480.37safe77.13–85.5675.86–84.87safer75.83–86.8674.53–86.21actual80.0084.00
Fouls
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3314.6826.00safe8.47–14.1911.73–17.6220.20–31.81safer7.59–15.0710.81–18.5418.40–33.61actual18.0014.0032.00
Offsides
38%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.793.55safe0.55–2.970.62–2.951.17–5.92safer0.21–3.310.29–3.280.50–6.59actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.564.72safe1.10–3.211.44–3.682.54–6.89safer0.83–3.481.15–3.971.98–7.45actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.100.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.450.00–0.430.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.835.47safe1.23–4.061.27–4.382.50–8.44safer0.84–4.450.84–4.811.68–9.26actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.32–2.24 0.06–2.50 | 1.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.12–2.33 | 2.00 | 2.51 0.68–4.33 0.18–4.83 | 3.00 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.88 2.03–5.74 1.53–6.24 | 5.00 | 4.76 3.05–6.47 2.58–6.94 | 3.00 | 8.64 5.08–12.20 4.11–13.17 | 8.00 | 32% 13% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.38 8.68–16.08 7.64–17.11 | 15.00 | 13.94 10.56–17.31 9.63–18.24 | 16.00 | 26.31 19.23–33.40 17.27–35.36 | 31.00 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 7.70 5.19–10.22 4.32–11.08 | 12.00 | 7.71 5.41–10.01 4.62–10.81 | 9.00 | 15.42 10.60–20.23 8.94–21.89 | 21.00 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.84–5.00 1.30–5.54 | 4.00 | 3.11 1.70–4.53 1.21–5.01 | 3.00 | 6.53 3.53–9.53 2.51–10.55 | 7.00 | 47% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.39 2.19–6.60 1.59–7.19 | 8.00 | 4.59 2.62–6.57 2.08–7.11 | 9.00 | 8.99 4.80–13.17 3.67–14.30 | 17.00 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Possession % | 51.62 45.30–57.93 43.70–59.53 | 42.00 | 47.84 41.52–54.16 39.92–55.75 | 58.00 | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 412 347–478 329–495 | 297 | 410 345–475 328–492 | 425 | 822 692–952 657–987 | 722 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.34 77.13–85.56 75.83–86.86 | 80.00 | 80.37 75.86–84.87 74.53–86.21 | 84.00 | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 11.33 8.47–14.19 7.59–15.07 | 18.00 | 14.68 11.73–17.62 10.81–18.54 | 14.00 | 26.00 20.20–31.81 18.40–33.61 | 32.00 | 22% 71% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.31 | 1.00 | 1.79 0.62–2.95 0.29–3.28 | 1.00 | 3.55 1.17–5.92 0.50–6.59 | 2.00 | 38% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.10–3.21 0.83–3.48 | 3.00 | 2.56 1.44–3.68 1.15–3.97 | 3.00 | 4.72 2.54–6.89 1.98–7.45 | 6.00 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.23–4.06 0.84–4.45 | 1.00 | 2.83 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.81 | 4.00 | 5.47 2.50–8.44 1.68–9.26 | 5.00 | 38% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.