Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: R. Coskunses
Goals
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.793.00safe0.25–2.180.93–2.651.18–4.82safer0.00–2.440.68–2.890.67–5.33actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
23%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction4.146.0210.16safe2.28–6.004.32–7.736.60–13.73safer1.79–6.503.85–8.205.63–14.69actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7915.8327.62safe8.09–15.5012.45–19.2120.54–34.71safer7.06–16.5311.52–20.1418.58–36.67actual11.0015.0026.00
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction8.179.4717.65safe5.66–10.697.17–11.7712.83–22.46safer4.79–11.556.38–12.5711.17–24.12actual7.007.0014.00
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.797.06safe1.69–4.862.37–5.204.06–10.06safer1.15–5.391.89–5.693.04–11.08actual0.003.003.00
Corners
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.795.519.29safe1.58–5.993.53–7.485.11–13.48safer0.99–6.592.99–8.023.98–14.61actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction44.8753.47safe38.55–51.1947.15–59.78safer36.96–52.7845.55–61.38actual29.0071.00
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction369433802safe304–434368–498672–932safer286–452351–515637–967actual229575804
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction78.3679.28safe74.14–82.5774.77–83.78safer72.84–83.8773.44–85.11actual71.0091.00
Fouls
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0310.8924.92safe11.17–16.897.95–13.8419.12–30.72safer10.29–17.777.03–14.7517.32–32.53actual16.009.0025.00
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.673.53safe0.64–3.060.51–2.841.15–5.90safer0.30–3.410.18–3.170.48–6.57actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
40%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.284.56safe1.22–3.341.16–3.402.38–6.73safer0.95–3.610.87–3.691.82–7.30actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
67%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.312.666.97safe2.89–5.721.11–4.224.00–9.94safer2.50–6.110.68–4.653.18–10.76actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 1.00 | 1.79 0.93–2.65 0.68–2.89 | 0.00 | 3.00 1.18–4.82 0.67–5.33 | 1.00 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–6.00 1.79–6.50 | 5.00 | 6.02 4.32–7.73 3.85–8.20 | 4.00 | 10.16 6.60–13.73 5.63–14.69 | 9.00 | 23% 67% |
| Total shots | 11.79 8.09–15.50 7.06–16.53 | 11.00 | 15.83 12.45–19.21 11.52–20.14 | 15.00 | 27.62 20.54–34.71 18.58–36.67 | 26.00 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.66–10.69 4.79–11.55 | 7.00 | 9.47 7.17–11.77 6.38–12.57 | 7.00 | 17.65 12.83–22.46 11.17–24.12 | 14.00 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.69–4.86 1.15–5.39 | 0.00 | 3.79 2.37–5.20 1.89–5.69 | 3.00 | 7.06 4.06–10.06 3.04–11.08 | 3.00 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 3.79 1.58–5.99 0.99–6.59 | 3.00 | 5.51 3.53–7.48 2.99–8.02 | 7.00 | 9.29 5.11–13.48 3.98–14.61 | 10.00 | 23% 65% |
| Possession % | 44.87 38.55–51.19 36.96–52.78 | 29.00 | 53.47 47.15–59.78 45.55–61.38 | 71.00 | — | — | 27% 68% |
| Passes | 369 304–434 286–452 | 229 | 433 368–498 351–515 | 575 | 802 672–932 637–967 | 804 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.36 74.14–82.57 72.84–83.87 | 71.00 | 79.28 74.77–83.78 73.44–85.11 | 91.00 | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 14.03 11.17–16.89 10.29–17.77 | 16.00 | 10.89 7.95–13.84 7.03–14.75 | 9.00 | 24.92 19.12–30.72 17.32–32.53 | 25.00 | 70% 23% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.64–3.06 0.30–3.41 | 2.00 | 1.67 0.51–2.84 0.18–3.17 | 3.00 | 3.53 1.15–5.90 0.48–6.57 | 5.00 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.28 1.22–3.34 0.95–3.61 | 3.00 | 2.28 1.16–3.40 0.87–3.69 | 3.00 | 4.56 2.38–6.73 1.82–7.30 | 6.00 | 40% 19% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 4.31 2.89–5.72 2.50–6.11 | 4.00 | 2.66 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 4.00 | 6.97 4.00–9.94 3.18–10.76 | 8.00 | 67% 20% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.