Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. Sansalan
Goals
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.543.08safe0.57–2.500.68–2.401.25–4.90safer0.31–2.760.44–2.650.75–5.41actual1.005.006.00
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.944.629.56safe3.09–6.802.92–6.336.00–13.13safer2.59–7.302.45–6.805.03–14.09actual4.008.0012.00
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0713.2627.33safe10.37–17.779.88–16.6420.25–34.41safer9.34–18.808.95–17.5718.29–36.38actual18.0012.0030.00
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.627.5917.20safe7.10–12.135.29–9.8912.39–22.02safer6.24–13.004.49–10.6910.73–23.68actual11.006.0017.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.003.477.47safe2.41–5.582.05–4.884.47–10.46safer1.88–6.121.57–5.373.45–11.49actual5.002.007.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.769.91safe2.94–7.352.79–6.745.73–14.10safer2.35–7.952.25–7.284.60–15.23actual8.002.0010.00
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.4950.56safe44.17–56.8144.24–56.88safer42.58–58.4142.65–58.48actual60.0040.00
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction420424844safe355–486359–488714–974safer337–503342–506679–1009actual581397978
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction81.0981.58safe76.87–85.3077.07–86.08safer75.57–86.6175.74–87.41actual89.0084.00
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4914.1726.66safe9.64–15.3511.22–17.1120.86–32.46safer8.75–16.2410.31–18.0319.06–34.27actual12.0018.0030.00
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.171.283.44safe0.96–3.380.11–2.441.07–5.82safer0.61–3.720.00–2.770.40–6.49actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
36%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.665.06safe1.34–3.461.54–3.782.88–7.24safer1.07–3.731.25–4.072.32–7.80actual0.003.003.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.24safe0.00–0.250.00–0.340.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.480.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.186.13safe1.54–4.371.63–4.733.17–9.10safer1.15–4.761.19–5.172.35–9.92actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.57–2.50 0.31–2.76 | 1.00 | 1.54 0.68–2.40 0.44–2.65 | 5.00 | 3.08 1.25–4.90 0.75–5.41 | 6.00 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.94 3.09–6.80 2.59–7.30 | 4.00 | 4.62 2.92–6.33 2.45–6.80 | 8.00 | 9.56 6.00–13.13 5.03–14.09 | 12.00 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.07 10.37–17.77 9.34–18.80 | 18.00 | 13.26 9.88–16.64 8.95–17.57 | 12.00 | 27.33 20.25–34.41 18.29–36.38 | 30.00 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.62 7.10–12.13 6.24–13.00 | 11.00 | 7.59 5.29–9.89 4.49–10.69 | 6.00 | 17.20 12.39–22.02 10.73–23.68 | 17.00 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.41–5.58 1.88–6.12 | 5.00 | 3.47 2.05–4.88 1.57–5.37 | 2.00 | 7.47 4.47–10.46 3.45–11.49 | 7.00 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.35 2.35–7.95 | 8.00 | 4.76 2.79–6.74 2.25–7.28 | 2.00 | 9.91 5.73–14.10 4.60–15.23 | 10.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 50.49 44.17–56.81 42.58–58.41 | 60.00 | 50.56 44.24–56.88 42.65–58.48 | 40.00 | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 420 355–486 337–503 | 581 | 424 359–488 342–506 | 397 | 844 714–974 679–1009 | 978 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.09 76.87–85.30 75.57–86.61 | 89.00 | 81.58 77.07–86.08 75.74–87.41 | 84.00 | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.49 9.64–15.35 8.75–16.24 | 12.00 | 14.17 11.22–17.11 10.31–18.03 | 18.00 | 26.66 20.86–32.46 19.06–34.27 | 30.00 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 2.17 0.96–3.38 0.61–3.72 | 3.00 | 1.28 0.11–2.44 0.00–2.77 | 0.00 | 3.44 1.07–5.82 0.40–6.49 | 3.00 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.40 1.34–3.46 1.07–3.73 | 0.00 | 2.66 1.54–3.78 1.25–4.07 | 3.00 | 5.06 2.88–7.24 2.32–7.80 | 3.00 | 36% 18% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.54–4.37 1.15–4.76 | 3.00 | 3.18 1.63–4.73 1.19–5.17 | 3.00 | 6.13 3.17–9.10 2.35–9.92 | 6.00 | 38% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+