Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. Sansalan
Goals
32%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.412.62safe0.25–2.180.55–2.270.80–4.44safer0.00–2.440.30–2.510.29–4.95actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.194.058.24safe2.34–6.052.34–5.754.67–11.80safer1.84–6.551.87–6.223.71–12.77actual8.007.0015.00
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3412.1324.47safe8.64–16.048.76–15.5117.39–31.56safer7.61–17.077.83–16.4415.43–33.52actual10.0018.0028.00
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction7.518.9016.41safe4.99–10.026.60–11.2011.59–21.22safer4.13–10.895.80–12.009.93–22.88actual4.008.0012.00
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.023.146.16safe1.44–4.601.73–4.563.16–9.16safer0.90–5.141.24–5.042.14–10.18actual0.007.007.00
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.995.2010.19safe2.79–7.203.22–7.186.01–14.38safer2.19–7.792.68–7.714.88–15.51actual1.009.0010.00
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.8957.03safe37.57–50.2050.71–63.35safer35.97–51.8049.12–64.95actual31.0069.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction334481815safe268–399417–546685–945safer251–416399–563650–980actual271584855
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction76.4882.20safe72.26–80.6977.69–86.70safer70.96–81.9976.36–88.03actual74.0089.00
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4013.0125.41safe9.54–15.2610.07–15.9619.61–31.22safer8.66–16.149.15–16.8817.81–33.02actual24.007.0031.00
Offsides
69%
17%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.451.013.46safe1.24–3.660.00–2.171.09–5.84safer0.90–4.000.00–2.510.41–6.51actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.342.454.79safe1.28–3.401.33–3.572.61–6.96safer1.01–3.671.04–3.862.05–7.53actual8.005.0013.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
38%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.522.735.25safe1.11–3.941.17–4.282.28–8.22safer0.72–4.330.74–4.711.46–9.04actual4.005.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 3.00 | 1.41 0.55–2.27 0.30–2.51 | 2.00 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.29–4.95 | 5.00 | 32% 26% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.34–6.05 1.84–6.55 | 8.00 | 4.05 2.34–5.75 1.87–6.22 | 7.00 | 8.24 4.67–11.80 3.71–12.77 | 15.00 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 12.34 8.64–16.04 7.61–17.07 | 10.00 | 12.13 8.76–15.51 7.83–16.44 | 18.00 | 24.47 17.39–31.56 15.43–33.52 | 28.00 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 7.51 4.99–10.02 4.13–10.89 | 4.00 | 8.90 6.60–11.20 5.80–12.00 | 8.00 | 16.41 11.59–21.22 9.93–22.88 | 12.00 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.02 1.44–4.60 0.90–5.14 | 0.00 | 3.14 1.73–4.56 1.24–5.04 | 7.00 | 6.16 3.16–9.16 2.14–10.18 | 7.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.79–7.20 2.19–7.79 | 1.00 | 5.20 3.22–7.18 2.68–7.71 | 9.00 | 10.19 6.01–14.38 4.88–15.51 | 10.00 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 43.89 37.57–50.20 35.97–51.80 | 31.00 | 57.03 50.71–63.35 49.12–64.95 | 69.00 | — | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 334 268–399 251–416 | 271 | 481 417–546 399–563 | 584 | 815 685–945 650–980 | 855 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.48 72.26–80.69 70.96–81.99 | 74.00 | 82.20 77.69–86.70 76.36–88.03 | 89.00 | — | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.40 9.54–15.26 8.66–16.14 | 24.00 | 13.01 10.07–15.96 9.15–16.88 | 7.00 | 25.41 19.61–31.22 17.81–33.02 | 31.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.45 1.24–3.66 0.90–4.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 0.00–2.17 0.00–2.51 | 2.00 | 3.46 1.09–5.84 0.41–6.51 | 2.00 | 69% 17% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 2.34 1.28–3.40 1.01–3.67 | 8.00 | 2.45 1.33–3.57 1.04–3.86 | 5.00 | 4.79 2.61–6.96 2.05–7.53 | 13.00 | 39% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 1.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 1.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.11–3.94 0.72–4.33 | 4.00 | 2.73 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.71 | 5.00 | 5.25 2.28–8.22 1.46–9.04 | 9.00 | 38% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.