Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. Karaoglan
Goals
66%
20%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.040.802.84safe1.08–3.000.00–1.661.02–4.66safer0.82–3.260.00–1.900.51–5.17actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.643.219.85safe4.79–8.501.50–4.926.29–13.42safer4.29–9.001.03–5.395.32–14.38actual11.000.0011.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.879.6927.56safe14.17–21.576.31–13.0720.48–34.64safer13.13–22.605.38–14.0018.52–36.60actual17.006.0023.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction12.326.1718.48safe9.80–14.833.86–8.4713.66–23.30safer8.94–15.703.07–9.2612.00–24.96actual11.002.0013.00
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.522.547.06safe2.94–6.101.12–3.954.06–10.06safer2.40–6.640.64–4.443.04–11.08actual3.004.007.00
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.543.349.88safe4.33–8.741.37–5.325.70–14.06safer3.74–9.340.83–5.864.57–15.20actual3.006.009.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction59.2439.90safe52.92–65.5533.58–46.22safer51.32–67.1531.99–47.82actual53.0047.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction516328844safe451–581264–393714–974safer433–599246–410679–1009actual463410873
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction86.1278.93safe81.90–90.3374.42–83.43safer80.60–91.6373.09–84.76actual88.0084.00
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9112.9324.85safe9.06–14.779.99–15.8819.04–30.65safer8.17–15.669.07–16.8017.24–32.45actual11.009.0020.00
Offsides
24%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.262.013.27safe0.05–2.470.85–3.170.90–5.64safer0.00–2.810.51–3.500.22–6.32actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
23%
17%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.894.69safe0.74–2.861.77–4.012.51–6.87safer0.47–3.131.48–4.301.95–7.43actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.554.046.59safe1.14–3.972.48–5.593.62–9.56safer0.75–4.362.05–6.022.80–10.38actual0.007.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 1.08–3.00 0.82–3.26 | 4.00 | 0.80 0.00–1.66 0.00–1.90 | 0.00 | 2.84 1.02–4.66 0.51–5.17 | 4.00 | 66% 20% 14% |
| Shots on target | 6.64 4.79–8.50 4.29–9.00 | 11.00 | 3.21 1.50–4.92 1.03–5.39 | 0.00 | 9.85 6.29–13.42 5.32–14.38 | 11.00 | 83% |
| Total shots | 17.87 14.17–21.57 13.13–22.60 | 17.00 | 9.69 6.31–13.07 5.38–14.00 | 6.00 | 27.56 20.48–34.64 18.52–36.60 | 23.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 12.32 9.80–14.83 8.94–15.70 | 11.00 | 6.17 3.86–8.47 3.07–9.26 | 2.00 | 18.48 13.66–23.30 12.00–24.96 | 13.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.52 2.94–6.10 2.40–6.64 | 3.00 | 2.54 1.12–3.95 0.64–4.44 | 4.00 | 7.06 4.06–10.06 3.04–11.08 | 7.00 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.54 4.33–8.74 3.74–9.34 | 3.00 | 3.34 1.37–5.32 0.83–5.86 | 6.00 | 9.88 5.70–14.06 4.57–15.20 | 9.00 | 81% |
| Possession % | 59.24 52.92–65.55 51.32–67.15 | 53.00 | 39.90 33.58–46.22 31.99–47.82 | 47.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 516 451–581 433–599 | 463 | 328 264–393 246–410 | 410 | 844 714–974 679–1009 | 873 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.12 81.90–90.33 80.60–91.63 | 88.00 | 78.93 74.42–83.43 73.09–84.76 | 84.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.06–14.77 8.17–15.66 | 11.00 | 12.93 9.99–15.88 9.07–16.80 | 9.00 | 24.85 19.04–30.65 17.24–32.45 | 20.00 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.26 0.05–2.47 0.00–2.81 | 2.00 | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.51–3.50 | 3.00 | 3.27 0.90–5.64 0.22–6.32 | 5.00 | 24% 22% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.74–2.86 0.47–3.13 | 2.00 | 2.89 1.77–4.01 1.48–4.30 | 1.00 | 4.69 2.51–6.87 1.95–7.43 | 3.00 | 23% 17% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.14–3.97 0.75–4.36 | 0.00 | 4.04 2.48–5.59 2.05–6.02 | 7.00 | 6.59 3.62–9.56 2.80–10.38 | 7.00 | 22% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.