Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. Akarsu
Goals
53%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.062.77safe0.75–2.670.20–1.920.95–4.59safer0.49–2.930.00–2.170.44–5.10actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.103.588.68safe3.24–6.961.87–5.285.11–12.24safer2.74–7.451.40–5.754.15–13.21actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9510.9825.93safe11.24–18.657.60–14.3618.84–33.01safer10.21–19.686.67–15.2916.88–34.97actual11.008.0019.00
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.357.2116.56safe6.83–11.864.91–9.5211.75–21.38safer5.97–12.734.12–10.3110.08–23.04actual7.005.0012.00
Blocked shots
66%
13%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.112.546.65safe2.53–5.701.12–3.953.65–9.65safer2.00–6.230.64–4.442.63–10.67actual3.001.004.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.179.63safe3.26–7.672.19–6.155.45–13.82safer2.66–8.261.65–6.694.32–14.95actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction59.5839.99safe53.27–65.9033.67–46.31safer51.67–67.5032.07–47.91actual67.0033.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction510341851safe445–576276–405721–981safer427–593258–423686–1016actual569279848
Pass accuracy %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction85.2578.71safe81.03–89.4674.20–83.22safer79.73–90.7672.87–84.55actual89.0080.00
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4212.7125.13safe9.57–15.289.76–15.6519.33–30.93safer8.68–16.178.84–16.5717.52–32.73actual18.006.0024.00
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.073.85safe0.56–2.980.91–3.241.47–6.22safer0.22–3.330.58–3.570.80–6.89actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.314.29safe0.93–3.041.19–3.432.12–6.47safer0.66–3.310.90–3.721.55–7.03actual4.000.004.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.335.90safe1.16–3.991.77–4.882.94–8.87safer0.77–4.381.34–5.312.11–9.69actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.71 0.75–2.67 0.49–2.93 | 1.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 2.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.44–5.10 | 3.00 | 53% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.10 3.24–6.96 2.74–7.45 | 4.00 | 3.58 1.87–5.28 1.40–5.75 | 4.00 | 8.68 5.11–12.24 4.15–13.21 | 8.00 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 14.95 11.24–18.65 10.21–19.68 | 11.00 | 10.98 7.60–14.36 6.67–15.29 | 8.00 | 25.93 18.84–33.01 16.88–34.97 | 19.00 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.35 6.83–11.86 5.97–12.73 | 7.00 | 7.21 4.91–9.52 4.12–10.31 | 5.00 | 16.56 11.75–21.38 10.08–23.04 | 12.00 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.53–5.70 2.00–6.23 | 3.00 | 2.54 1.12–3.95 0.64–4.44 | 1.00 | 6.65 3.65–9.65 2.63–10.67 | 4.00 | 66% 13% 21% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.26–7.67 2.66–8.26 | 3.00 | 4.17 2.19–6.15 1.65–6.69 | 2.00 | 9.63 5.45–13.82 4.32–14.95 | 5.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 59.58 53.27–65.90 51.67–67.50 | 67.00 | 39.99 33.67–46.31 32.07–47.91 | 33.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 510 445–576 427–593 | 569 | 341 276–405 258–423 | 279 | 851 721–981 686–1016 | 848 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.25 81.03–89.46 79.73–90.76 | 89.00 | 78.71 74.20–83.22 72.87–84.55 | 80.00 | — | — | 77% 19% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.57–15.28 8.68–16.17 | 18.00 | 12.71 9.76–15.65 8.84–16.57 | 6.00 | 25.13 19.33–30.93 17.52–32.73 | 24.00 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.56–2.98 0.22–3.33 | 1.00 | 2.07 0.91–3.24 0.58–3.57 | 0.00 | 3.85 1.47–6.22 0.80–6.89 | 1.00 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.93–3.04 0.66–3.31 | 4.00 | 2.31 1.19–3.43 0.90–3.72 | 0.00 | 4.29 2.12–6.47 1.55–7.03 | 4.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.16–3.99 0.77–4.38 | 2.00 | 3.33 1.77–4.88 1.34–5.31 | 3.00 | 5.90 2.94–8.87 2.11–9.69 | 5.00 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.