Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. B. Taskinsoy
Goals
28%
27%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.372.37safe0.04–1.970.51–2.230.55–4.19safer0.00–2.230.26–2.470.04–4.70actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
26%
13%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.224.477.69safe1.36–5.072.77–6.184.13–11.25safer0.86–5.572.30–6.653.16–12.22actual2.002.004.00
Total shots
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8413.2924.13safe7.14–14.559.91–16.6717.05–31.21safer6.11–15.588.98–17.6015.09–33.18actual8.008.0016.00
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction6.838.8015.63safe4.31–9.356.50–11.1010.81–20.44safer3.45–10.215.70–11.909.15–22.11actual6.002.008.00
Blocked shots
28%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.074.147.21safe1.48–4.652.73–5.564.21–10.21safer0.95–5.182.24–6.043.19–11.23actual2.000.002.00
Corners
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.315.239.54safe2.10–6.513.25–7.215.35–13.72safer1.51–7.112.71–7.744.22–14.85actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction39.9861.14safe33.66–46.2954.82–67.46safer32.06–47.8953.23–69.06actual43.0057.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction358566924safe292–423502–631794–1054safer275–441484–648759–1089actual405553958
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction76.3785.87safe72.15–80.5981.37–90.38safer70.85–81.8980.04–91.71actual82.0087.00
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9911.6325.63safe11.13–16.858.69–14.5819.82–31.43safer10.25–17.737.77–15.5018.02–33.23actual7.0010.0017.00
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.843.38safe0.34–2.760.67–3.001.01–5.75safer0.00–3.100.34–3.330.33–6.43actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.973.77safe0.75–2.860.85–3.091.60–5.95safer0.48–3.130.56–3.381.04–6.51actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.412.265.67safe1.99–4.820.70–3.812.70–8.63safer1.61–5.210.27–4.241.88–9.45actual2.001.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.04–1.97 0.00–2.23 | 1.00 | 1.37 0.51–2.23 0.26–2.47 | 0.00 | 2.37 0.55–4.19 0.04–4.70 | 1.00 | 28% 27% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.22 1.36–5.07 0.86–5.57 | 2.00 | 4.47 2.77–6.18 2.30–6.65 | 2.00 | 7.69 4.13–11.25 3.16–12.22 | 4.00 | 26% 13% 61% |
| Total shots | 10.84 7.14–14.55 6.11–15.58 | 8.00 | 13.29 9.91–16.67 8.98–17.60 | 8.00 | 24.13 17.05–31.21 15.09–33.18 | 16.00 | 27% 65% |
| Shots in box | 6.83 4.31–9.35 3.45–10.21 | 6.00 | 8.80 6.50–11.10 5.70–11.90 | 2.00 | 15.63 10.81–20.44 9.15–22.11 | 8.00 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.07 1.48–4.65 0.95–5.18 | 2.00 | 4.14 2.73–5.56 2.24–6.04 | 0.00 | 7.21 4.21–10.21 3.19–11.23 | 2.00 | 28% 14% 58% |
| Corners | 4.31 2.10–6.51 1.51–7.11 | 3.00 | 5.23 3.25–7.21 2.71–7.74 | 5.00 | 9.54 5.35–13.72 4.22–14.85 | 8.00 | 32% 55% |
| Possession % | 39.98 33.66–46.29 32.06–47.89 | 43.00 | 61.14 54.82–67.46 53.23–69.06 | 57.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 358 292–423 275–441 | 405 | 566 502–631 484–648 | 553 | 924 794–1054 759–1089 | 958 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.37 72.15–80.59 70.85–81.89 | 82.00 | 85.87 81.37–90.38 80.04–91.71 | 87.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 13.99 11.13–16.85 10.25–17.73 | 7.00 | 11.63 8.69–14.58 7.77–15.50 | 10.00 | 25.63 19.82–31.43 18.02–33.23 | 17.00 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.34–2.76 0.00–3.10 | 0.00 | 1.84 0.67–3.00 0.34–3.33 | 2.00 | 3.38 1.01–5.75 0.33–6.43 | 2.00 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.86 0.48–3.13 | 3.00 | 1.97 0.85–3.09 0.56–3.38 | 2.00 | 3.77 1.60–5.95 1.04–6.51 | 5.00 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.41 1.99–4.82 1.61–5.21 | 2.00 | 2.26 0.70–3.81 0.27–4.24 | 1.00 | 5.67 2.70–8.63 1.88–9.45 | 3.00 | 61% 15% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.