Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: K. Saglam
Goals
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.260.763.02safe1.30–3.230.00–1.611.20–4.84safer1.04–3.490.00–1.860.69–5.35actual8.000.008.00
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction5.942.698.63safe4.09–7.800.98–4.405.07–12.20safer3.59–8.300.52–4.874.10–13.16actual13.006.0019.00
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction16.728.5825.30safe13.01–20.425.20–11.9618.22–32.38safer11.98–21.454.27–12.8916.26–34.34actual23.0016.0039.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction12.294.8617.15safe9.77–14.802.56–7.1612.33–21.97safer8.91–15.671.76–7.9610.67–23.63actual18.006.0024.00
Blocked shots
74%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.312.166.47safe2.72–5.890.75–3.583.47–9.47safer2.19–6.430.26–4.062.45–10.49actual6.004.0010.00
Corners
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.703.229.93safe4.50–8.911.25–5.205.74–14.11safer3.90–9.500.71–5.744.61–15.24actual8.005.0013.00
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction62.4338.30safe56.12–68.7531.99–44.62safer54.52–70.3530.39–46.22actual55.0045.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction542325867safe477–608260–389737–997safer459–625243–407702–1032actual445364809
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction84.6376.75safe80.42–88.8572.24–81.26safer79.12–90.1570.91–82.59actual91.0086.00
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7612.8326.59safe10.90–16.619.89–15.7820.79–32.39safer10.01–17.508.97–16.7018.98–34.19actual11.005.0016.00
Offsides
65%
18%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.551.303.85safe1.35–3.760.13–2.461.48–6.22safer1.00–4.110.00–2.790.80–6.90actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
30%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.534.46safe0.87–2.981.41–3.652.29–6.64safer0.60–3.261.12–3.941.72–7.20actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.16safe0.00–0.200.00–0.310.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.450.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
78%
homeawaytotalprediction1.693.985.67safe0.27–3.102.43–5.532.70–8.64safer0.00–3.491.99–5.971.88–9.46actual6.005.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.26 1.30–3.23 1.04–3.49 | 8.00 | 0.76 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.86 | 0.00 | 3.02 1.20–4.84 0.69–5.35 | 8.00 | 72% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.94 4.09–7.80 3.59–8.30 | 13.00 | 2.69 0.98–4.40 0.52–4.87 | 6.00 | 8.63 5.07–12.20 4.10–13.16 | 19.00 | 83% |
| Total shots | 16.72 13.01–20.42 11.98–21.45 | 23.00 | 8.58 5.20–11.96 4.27–12.89 | 16.00 | 25.30 18.22–32.38 16.26–34.34 | 39.00 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 12.29 9.77–14.80 8.91–15.67 | 18.00 | 4.86 2.56–7.16 1.76–7.96 | 6.00 | 17.15 12.33–21.97 10.67–23.63 | 24.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 2.72–5.89 2.19–6.43 | 6.00 | 2.16 0.75–3.58 0.26–4.06 | 4.00 | 6.47 3.47–9.47 2.45–10.49 | 10.00 | 74% 14% |
| Corners | 6.70 4.50–8.91 3.90–9.50 | 8.00 | 3.22 1.25–5.20 0.71–5.74 | 5.00 | 9.93 5.74–14.11 4.61–15.24 | 13.00 | 83% |
| Possession % | 62.43 56.12–68.75 54.52–70.35 | 55.00 | 38.30 31.99–44.62 30.39–46.22 | 45.00 | — | — | 93% |
| Passes | 542 477–608 459–625 | 445 | 325 260–389 243–407 | 364 | 867 737–997 702–1032 | 809 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.63 80.42–88.85 79.12–90.15 | 91.00 | 76.75 72.24–81.26 70.91–82.59 | 86.00 | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 13.76 10.90–16.61 10.01–17.50 | 11.00 | 12.83 9.89–15.78 8.97–16.70 | 5.00 | 26.59 20.79–32.39 18.98–34.19 | 16.00 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.55 1.35–3.76 1.00–4.11 | 4.00 | 1.30 0.13–2.46 0.00–2.79 | 0.00 | 3.85 1.48–6.22 0.80–6.90 | 4.00 | 65% 18% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.87–2.98 0.60–3.26 | 0.00 | 2.53 1.41–3.65 1.12–3.94 | 0.00 | 4.46 2.29–6.64 1.72–7.20 | 0.00 | 30% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.69 0.27–3.10 0.00–3.49 | 6.00 | 3.98 2.43–5.53 1.99–5.97 | 5.00 | 5.67 2.70–8.64 1.88–9.46 | 11.00 | 78% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+