Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: O. Cakir
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.463.06safe0.64–2.560.60–2.321.24–4.89safer0.38–2.820.36–2.570.73–5.39actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.489.41safe3.08–6.792.77–6.195.85–12.97safer2.58–7.292.30–6.654.88–13.94actual9.004.0013.00
Total shots
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9814.1129.09safe11.28–18.6910.73–17.4922.01–36.17safer10.25–19.729.80–18.4220.05–38.13actual24.0011.0035.00
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.628.3117.93safe7.10–12.146.01–10.6113.12–22.75safer6.24–13.005.22–11.4111.46–24.41actual17.006.0023.00
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.654.037.67safe2.06–5.232.61–5.444.67–10.67safer1.53–5.762.13–5.933.65–11.69actual6.004.0010.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.284.9210.20safe3.08–7.492.94–6.906.02–14.38safer2.48–8.082.40–7.434.88–15.52actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction40.4959.74safe34.17–46.8053.42–66.06safer32.57–48.4051.82–67.65actual40.0060.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction285443728safe220–350379–508598–858safer202–368361–525563–893actual273421694
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction70.3281.48safe66.10–74.5376.97–85.99safer64.80–75.8375.64–87.32actual75.0080.00
Fouls
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3311.4125.75safe11.48–17.198.47–14.3619.94–31.55safer10.59–18.087.55–15.2818.14–33.35actual15.009.0024.00
Offsides
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.573.12safe0.34–2.760.40–2.730.75–5.49safer0.00–3.110.07–3.060.07–6.17actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.254.18safe0.88–2.991.13–3.372.00–6.36safer0.60–3.260.84–3.661.44–6.92actual5.001.006.00
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.130.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.89actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.935.55safe1.21–4.031.38–4.482.58–8.52safer0.82–4.420.94–4.911.76–9.34actual2.008.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.64–2.56 0.38–2.82 | 2.00 | 1.46 0.60–2.32 0.36–2.57 | 2.00 | 3.06 1.24–4.89 0.73–5.39 | 4.00 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.08–6.79 2.58–7.29 | 9.00 | 4.48 2.77–6.19 2.30–6.65 | 4.00 | 9.41 5.85–12.97 4.88–13.94 | 13.00 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.98 11.28–18.69 10.25–19.72 | 24.00 | 14.11 10.73–17.49 9.80–18.42 | 11.00 | 29.09 22.01–36.17 20.05–38.13 | 35.00 | 53% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.62 7.10–12.14 6.24–13.00 | 17.00 | 8.31 6.01–10.61 5.22–11.41 | 6.00 | 17.93 13.12–22.75 11.46–24.41 | 23.00 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 2.06–5.23 1.53–5.76 | 6.00 | 4.03 2.61–5.44 2.13–5.93 | 4.00 | 7.67 4.67–10.67 3.65–11.69 | 10.00 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 5.28 3.08–7.49 2.48–8.08 | 4.00 | 4.92 2.94–6.90 2.40–7.43 | 3.00 | 10.20 6.02–14.38 4.88–15.52 | 7.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 40.49 34.17–46.80 32.57–48.40 | 40.00 | 59.74 53.42–66.06 51.82–67.65 | 60.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 285 220–350 202–368 | 273 | 443 379–508 361–525 | 421 | 728 598–858 563–893 | 694 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.32 66.10–74.53 64.80–75.83 | 75.00 | 81.48 76.97–85.99 75.64–87.32 | 80.00 | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 14.33 11.48–17.19 10.59–18.08 | 15.00 | 11.41 8.47–14.36 7.55–15.28 | 9.00 | 25.75 19.94–31.55 18.14–33.35 | 24.00 | 68% 25% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.34–2.76 0.00–3.11 | 3.00 | 1.57 0.40–2.73 0.07–3.06 | 2.00 | 3.12 0.75–5.49 0.07–6.17 | 5.00 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.99 0.60–3.26 | 5.00 | 2.25 1.13–3.37 0.84–3.66 | 1.00 | 4.18 2.00–6.36 1.44–6.92 | 6.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.89 | 0.00 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.21–4.03 0.82–4.42 | 2.00 | 2.93 1.38–4.48 0.94–4.91 | 8.00 | 5.55 2.58–8.52 1.76–9.34 | 10.00 | 36% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+