Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: D. Celik
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.062.41safe0.38–2.300.21–1.920.58–4.23safer0.12–2.560.00–2.170.08–4.73actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
58%
13%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.427.92safe2.64–6.361.71–5.134.36–11.49safer2.14–6.861.25–5.603.39–12.45actual2.004.006.00
Total shots
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3310.8525.18safe10.63–18.047.47–14.2318.10–32.26safer9.60–19.076.54–15.1616.14–34.22actual12.0011.0023.00
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.777.3616.13safe6.25–11.285.06–9.6711.31–20.95safer5.39–12.154.27–10.469.65–22.61actual7.008.0015.00
Blocked shots
49%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.533.106.63safe1.94–5.111.69–4.513.63–9.63safer1.41–5.651.20–5.002.61–10.65actual5.003.008.00
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.134.589.71safe2.93–7.342.60–6.565.53–13.90safer2.33–7.932.07–7.104.40–15.03actual6.004.0010.00
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction48.0152.53safe41.69–54.3346.22–58.85safer40.09–55.9244.62–60.45actual47.0053.00
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction394437832safe329–460373–502702–961safer311–477355–519666–997actual353407760
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction81.2681.84safe77.05–85.4877.33–86.34safer75.74–86.7876.00–87.67actual77.0080.00
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6712.0924.76safe9.81–15.529.14–15.0318.95–30.56safer8.92–16.418.23–15.9517.15–32.36actual17.0015.0032.00
Offsides
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.253.00safe0.54–2.960.09–2.410.63–5.37safer0.19–3.300.00–2.750.00–6.05actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.374.66safe1.23–3.351.25–3.492.49–6.84safer0.96–3.620.96–3.781.92–7.40actual3.004.007.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.19safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.965.31safe0.93–3.761.40–4.512.34–8.27safer0.54–4.150.97–4.941.52–9.10actual4.002.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.38–2.30 0.12–2.56 | 0.00 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 0.00 | 2.41 0.58–4.23 0.08–4.73 | 0.00 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.36 2.14–6.86 | 2.00 | 3.42 1.71–5.13 1.25–5.60 | 4.00 | 7.92 4.36–11.49 3.39–12.45 | 6.00 | 58% 13% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.33 10.63–18.04 9.60–19.07 | 12.00 | 10.85 7.47–14.23 6.54–15.16 | 11.00 | 25.18 18.10–32.26 16.14–34.22 | 23.00 | 72% 21% |
| Shots in box | 8.77 6.25–11.28 5.39–12.15 | 7.00 | 7.36 5.06–9.67 4.27–10.46 | 8.00 | 16.13 11.31–20.95 9.65–22.61 | 15.00 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.94–5.11 1.41–5.65 | 5.00 | 3.10 1.69–4.51 1.20–5.00 | 3.00 | 6.63 3.63–9.63 2.61–10.65 | 8.00 | 49% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.93–7.34 2.33–7.93 | 6.00 | 4.58 2.60–6.56 2.07–7.10 | 4.00 | 9.71 5.53–13.90 4.40–15.03 | 10.00 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 48.01 41.69–54.33 40.09–55.92 | 47.00 | 52.53 46.22–58.85 44.62–60.45 | 53.00 | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 394 329–460 311–477 | 353 | 437 373–502 355–519 | 407 | 832 702–961 666–997 | 760 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.26 77.05–85.48 75.74–86.78 | 77.00 | 81.84 77.33–86.34 76.00–87.67 | 80.00 | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.67 9.81–15.52 8.92–16.41 | 17.00 | 12.09 9.14–15.03 8.23–15.95 | 15.00 | 24.76 18.95–30.56 17.15–32.36 | 32.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.19–3.30 | 2.00 | 1.25 0.09–2.41 0.00–2.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 0.63–5.37 0.00–6.05 | 5.00 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 1.23–3.35 0.96–3.62 | 3.00 | 2.37 1.25–3.49 0.96–3.78 | 4.00 | 4.66 2.49–6.84 1.92–7.40 | 7.00 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.93–3.76 0.54–4.15 | 4.00 | 2.96 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.94 | 2.00 | 5.31 2.34–8.27 1.52–9.10 | 6.00 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.