Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: H. U. Meler
Goals
42%
28%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.072.36safe0.33–2.260.21–1.930.54–4.18safer0.07–2.520.00–2.170.03–4.69actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.463.948.40safe2.60–6.312.24–5.654.84–11.96safer2.10–6.811.77–6.123.87–12.93actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2412.6125.85safe9.53–16.949.24–15.9918.77–32.93safer8.50–17.978.31–16.9216.81–34.89actual16.0015.0031.00
Shots in box
62%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.166.5014.66safe5.65–10.684.19–8.809.84–19.48safer4.78–11.543.40–9.598.18–21.14actual10.0010.0020.00
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.232.926.16safe1.65–4.821.51–4.343.16–9.15safer1.12–5.351.02–4.822.14–10.18actual6.002.008.00
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.259.22safe2.76–7.172.27–6.235.03–13.40safer2.16–7.771.74–6.773.90–14.53actual1.001.002.00
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction52.2948.36safe45.97–58.6042.04–54.68safer44.37–60.2040.44–56.28actual52.0048.00
Passes
56%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction427407834safe362–492343–472704–964safer344–510325–490669–999actual406383789
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction82.9881.23safe78.76–87.1976.72–85.73safer77.46–88.4975.39–87.06actual82.0081.00
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4313.5827.01safe10.57–16.2810.64–16.5321.20–32.81safer9.68–17.179.72–17.4419.40–34.61actual14.009.0023.00
Offsides
56%
23%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.002.78safe0.57–2.990.00–2.160.41–5.15safer0.23–3.340.00–2.500.00–5.83actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
41%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.404.83safe1.38–3.491.28–3.522.66–7.01safer1.10–3.760.99–3.812.09–7.57actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.470.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.635.19safe1.14–3.971.08–4.192.22–8.16safer0.75–4.360.65–4.621.40–8.98actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.33–2.26 0.07–2.52 | 2.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.17 | 0.00 | 2.36 0.54–4.18 0.03–4.69 | 2.00 | 42% 28% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.31 2.10–6.81 | 4.00 | 3.94 2.24–5.65 1.77–6.12 | 3.00 | 8.40 4.84–11.96 3.87–12.93 | 7.00 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.24 9.53–16.94 8.50–17.97 | 16.00 | 12.61 9.24–15.99 8.31–16.92 | 15.00 | 25.85 18.77–32.93 16.81–34.89 | 31.00 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 8.16 5.65–10.68 4.78–11.54 | 10.00 | 6.50 4.19–8.80 3.40–9.59 | 10.00 | 14.66 9.84–19.48 8.18–21.14 | 20.00 | 62% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.65–4.82 1.12–5.35 | 6.00 | 2.92 1.51–4.34 1.02–4.82 | 2.00 | 6.16 3.16–9.15 2.14–10.18 | 8.00 | 47% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.76–7.17 2.16–7.77 | 1.00 | 4.25 2.27–6.23 1.74–6.77 | 1.00 | 9.22 5.03–13.40 3.90–14.53 | 2.00 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 52.29 45.97–58.60 44.37–60.20 | 52.00 | 48.36 42.04–54.68 40.44–56.28 | 48.00 | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 427 362–492 344–510 | 406 | 407 343–472 325–490 | 383 | 834 704–964 669–999 | 789 | 56% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.98 78.76–87.19 77.46–88.49 | 82.00 | 81.23 76.72–85.73 75.39–87.06 | 81.00 | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 13.43 10.57–16.28 9.68–17.17 | 14.00 | 13.58 10.64–16.53 9.72–17.44 | 9.00 | 27.01 21.20–32.81 19.40–34.61 | 23.00 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.23–3.34 | 1.00 | 1.00 0.00–2.16 0.00–2.50 | 2.00 | 2.78 0.41–5.15 0.00–5.83 | 3.00 | 56% 23% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.38–3.49 1.10–3.76 | 1.00 | 2.40 1.28–3.52 0.99–3.81 | 2.00 | 4.83 2.66–7.01 2.09–7.57 | 3.00 | 41% 19% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.14–3.97 0.75–4.36 | 3.00 | 2.63 1.08–4.19 0.65–4.62 | 2.00 | 5.19 2.22–8.16 1.40–8.98 | 5.00 | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.