Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·
Süper Lig·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: B. Kolak
Goals
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.782.99safe0.24–2.170.92–2.641.17–4.81safer0.00–2.430.68–2.890.66–5.32actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.799.60safe2.95–6.673.08–6.496.03–13.16safer2.45–7.162.61–6.965.06–14.13actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4112.6827.09safe10.71–18.119.30–16.0620.00–34.17safer9.67–19.148.37–16.9918.04–36.13actual7.0013.0020.00
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction8.089.5117.59safe5.57–10.607.21–11.8112.77–22.41safer4.70–11.466.41–12.6111.11–24.07actual7.008.0015.00
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.537.32safe2.20–5.372.12–4.954.32–10.32safer1.67–5.911.63–5.433.30–11.34actual0.005.005.00
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.375.1510.52safe3.16–7.573.18–7.136.34–14.70safer2.57–8.172.64–7.675.20–15.84actual1.005.006.00
Possession %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction45.8553.06safe39.53–52.1746.74–59.38safer37.94–53.7645.14–60.97actual46.0054.00
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction375442817safe310–440378–507687–947safer292–458360–525652–982actual352419771
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction78.0683.93safe73.85–82.2879.42–88.44safer72.55–83.5878.09–89.77actual80.0082.00
Fouls
18%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4315.7827.20safe8.57–14.2812.83–18.7221.40–33.01safer7.68–15.1711.92–19.6419.60–34.81actual15.0017.0032.00
Offsides
52%
18%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.034.71safe1.47–3.890.87–3.192.33–7.08safer1.12–4.230.53–3.521.66–7.75actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.504.93safe1.38–3.491.38–3.622.76–7.11safer1.11–3.761.09–3.912.19–7.67actual4.001.005.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.24safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.470.00–0.88actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
41%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.126.20safe1.67–4.501.56–4.673.23–9.17safer1.28–4.891.13–5.102.41–9.99actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.17 0.00–2.43 | 4.00 | 1.78 0.92–2.64 0.68–2.89 | 0.00 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.66–5.32 | 4.00 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.81 2.95–6.67 2.45–7.16 | 4.00 | 4.79 3.08–6.49 2.61–6.96 | 3.00 | 9.60 6.03–13.16 5.06–14.13 | 7.00 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 14.41 10.71–18.11 9.67–19.14 | 7.00 | 12.68 9.30–16.06 8.37–16.99 | 13.00 | 27.09 20.00–34.17 18.04–36.13 | 20.00 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.08 5.57–10.60 4.70–11.46 | 7.00 | 9.51 7.21–11.81 6.41–12.61 | 8.00 | 17.59 12.77–22.41 11.11–24.07 | 15.00 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 2.20–5.37 1.67–5.91 | 0.00 | 3.53 2.12–4.95 1.63–5.43 | 5.00 | 7.32 4.32–10.32 3.30–11.34 | 5.00 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.57 2.57–8.17 | 1.00 | 5.15 3.18–7.13 2.64–7.67 | 5.00 | 10.52 6.34–14.70 5.20–15.84 | 6.00 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 45.85 39.53–52.17 37.94–53.76 | 46.00 | 53.06 46.74–59.38 45.14–60.97 | 54.00 | — | — | 30% 65% |
| Passes | 375 310–440 292–458 | 352 | 442 378–507 360–525 | 419 | 817 687–947 652–982 | 771 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.06 73.85–82.28 72.55–83.58 | 80.00 | 83.93 79.42–88.44 78.09–89.77 | 82.00 | — | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 11.43 8.57–14.28 7.68–15.17 | 15.00 | 15.78 12.83–18.72 11.92–19.64 | 17.00 | 27.20 21.40–33.01 19.60–34.81 | 32.00 | 18% 77% |
| Offsides | 2.68 1.47–3.89 1.12–4.23 | 3.00 | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.53–3.52 | 0.00 | 4.71 2.33–7.08 1.66–7.75 | 3.00 | 52% 18% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.38–3.49 1.11–3.76 | 4.00 | 2.50 1.38–3.62 1.09–3.91 | 1.00 | 4.93 2.76–7.11 2.19–7.67 | 5.00 | 40% 18% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 1.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 1.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.67–4.50 1.28–4.89 | 2.00 | 3.12 1.56–4.67 1.13–5.10 | 0.00 | 6.20 3.23–9.17 2.41–9.99 | 2.00 | 41% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.