Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
23%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.842.80safe0.00–1.930.99–2.700.98–4.62safer0.00–2.180.76–2.920.50–5.10
Shots on target
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.475.428.89safe1.61–5.333.68–7.165.28–12.49safer1.12–5.823.21–7.634.33–13.45
Total shots
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3514.5425.89safe7.42–15.2710.98–18.1018.40–33.37safer6.33–16.3610.02–19.0616.35–35.42
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction6.549.4415.98safe3.60–9.486.76–12.1210.36–21.61safer2.77–10.316.02–12.868.79–23.18
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.956.75safe0.92–4.682.30–5.603.22–10.29safer0.37–5.231.80–6.102.18–11.32
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.205.569.75safe1.98–6.413.56–7.565.54–13.97safer1.41–6.993.02–8.094.43–15.07
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction40.3459.76safe33.55–47.1352.97–66.54safer31.88–48.8051.30–68.22
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction348517865safe281–415450–583731–998safer263–433433–601695–1034
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction75.3283.48safe71.30–79.3579.15–87.80safer70.00–80.6577.84–89.11
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2412.1226.36safe11.41–17.089.18–15.0720.58–32.15safer10.65–17.848.43–15.8119.08–33.65
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.053.97safe0.76–3.080.95–3.141.72–6.22safer0.46–3.380.67–3.431.13–6.81
Yellow cards
48%
18%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.214.86safe1.60–3.691.08–3.342.68–7.04safer1.33–3.960.79–3.632.12–7.59
Red cards
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.100.27safe0.01–0.330.00–0.290.00–0.62safer0.00–0.480.00–0.420.00–0.90
GK saves
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.505.99safe2.05–4.920.95–4.063.00–8.98safer1.66–5.310.52–4.482.19–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 1.84 0.99–2.70 0.76–2.92 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 19% 23% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.47 1.61–5.33 1.12–5.82 | 5.42 3.68–7.16 3.21–7.63 | 8.89 5.28–12.49 4.33–13.45 | 20% 69% |
| Total shots | 11.35 7.42–15.27 6.33–16.36 | 14.54 10.98–18.10 10.02–19.06 | 25.89 18.40–33.37 16.35–35.42 | 23% 70% |
| Shots in box | 6.54 3.60–9.48 2.77–10.31 | 9.44 6.76–12.12 6.02–12.86 | 15.98 10.36–21.61 8.79–23.18 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.80 0.92–4.68 0.37–5.23 | 3.95 2.30–5.60 1.80–6.10 | 6.75 3.22–10.29 2.18–11.32 | 26% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 4.20 1.98–6.41 1.41–6.99 | 5.56 3.56–7.56 3.02–8.09 | 9.75 5.54–13.97 4.43–15.07 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 40.34 33.55–47.13 31.88–48.80 | 59.76 52.97–66.54 51.30–68.22 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 348 281–415 263–433 | 517 450–583 433–601 | 865 731–998 695–1034 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.32 71.30–79.35 70.00–80.65 | 83.48 79.15–87.80 77.84–89.11 | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 14.24 11.41–17.08 10.65–17.84 | 12.12 9.18–15.07 8.43–15.81 | 26.36 20.58–32.15 19.08–33.65 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.38 | 2.05 0.95–3.14 0.67–3.43 | 3.97 1.72–6.22 1.13–6.81 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.64 1.60–3.69 1.33–3.96 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.86 2.68–7.04 2.12–7.59 | 48% 18% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 14% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.49 2.05–4.92 1.66–5.31 | 2.50 0.95–4.06 0.52–4.48 | 5.99 3.00–8.98 2.19–9.79 | 58% 15% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.