Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.012.71safe0.73–2.660.16–1.870.88–4.53safer0.48–2.910.00–2.100.41–5.01
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.153.919.06safe3.29–7.012.17–5.665.46–12.67safer2.80–7.501.71–6.124.50–13.62
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9011.5527.45safe11.98–19.837.98–15.1119.96–34.94safer10.89–20.927.02–16.0717.91–36.99
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.656.6817.34safe7.71–13.604.00–9.3611.71–22.96safer6.88–14.423.26–10.1010.15–24.53
Blocked shots
52%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.683.026.69safe1.79–5.561.36–4.673.16–10.23safer1.25–6.100.87–5.162.12–11.26
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.654.359.99safe3.43–7.862.35–6.355.78–14.21safer2.86–8.431.81–6.884.67–15.31
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction47.8851.75safe41.09–54.6744.96–58.53safer39.42–56.3443.29–60.20
Passes
41%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction349375724safe282–416308–441590–858safer264–434291–459555–893
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction75.5577.36safe71.52–79.5873.04–81.69safer70.23–80.8771.73–83.00
Fouls
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8411.5827.42safe13.01–18.688.63–14.5221.64–33.20safer12.25–19.447.88–15.2720.13–34.71
Offsides
66%
17%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.661.313.97safe1.50–3.820.21–2.401.71–6.22safer1.20–4.120.00–2.691.12–6.81
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.873.66safe0.74–2.840.74–3.001.48–5.84safer0.47–3.100.45–3.290.92–6.40
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.356.01safe1.23–4.101.79–4.903.01–9.00safer0.84–4.491.36–5.332.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.66 0.48–2.91 | 1.01 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.71 0.88–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.15 3.29–7.01 2.80–7.50 | 3.91 2.17–5.66 1.71–6.12 | 9.06 5.46–12.67 4.50–13.62 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.90 11.98–19.83 10.89–20.92 | 11.55 7.98–15.11 7.02–16.07 | 27.45 19.96–34.94 17.91–36.99 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.65 7.71–13.60 6.88–14.42 | 6.68 4.00–9.36 3.26–10.10 | 17.34 11.71–22.96 10.15–24.53 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 1.79–5.56 1.25–6.10 | 3.02 1.36–4.67 0.87–5.16 | 6.69 3.16–10.23 2.12–11.26 | 52% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.65 3.43–7.86 2.86–8.43 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.81–6.88 | 9.99 5.78–14.21 4.67–15.31 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 47.88 41.09–54.67 39.42–56.34 | 51.75 44.96–58.53 43.29–60.20 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 349 282–416 264–434 | 375 308–441 291–459 | 724 590–858 555–893 | 41% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.55 71.52–79.58 70.23–80.87 | 77.36 73.04–81.69 71.73–83.00 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 15.84 13.01–18.68 12.25–19.44 | 11.58 8.63–14.52 7.88–15.27 | 27.42 21.64–33.20 20.13–34.71 | 76% 18% |
| Offsides | 2.66 1.50–3.82 1.20–4.12 | 1.31 0.21–2.40 0.00–2.69 | 3.97 1.71–6.22 1.12–6.81 | 66% 17% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.47–3.10 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.66 1.48–5.84 0.92–6.40 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 3.35 1.79–4.90 1.36–5.33 | 6.01 3.01–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+