Super League 1·Regular Season - 1·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michalis Matsoukas · Greece
Goals
60%
22%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.950.992.95safe0.99–2.920.13–1.851.12–4.77safer0.73–3.180.00–2.100.62–5.28actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.653.619.26safe3.79–7.511.90–5.325.70–12.82safer3.29–8.001.43–5.784.73–13.79actual9.004.0013.00
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9010.8525.76safe11.20–18.617.48–14.2318.67–32.84safer10.17–19.646.54–15.1616.71–34.80actual20.007.0027.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.496.1116.60safe7.97–13.013.81–8.4111.78–21.42safer7.11–13.873.01–9.2110.12–23.08actual14.004.0018.00
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.486.16safe2.09–5.261.07–3.903.16–9.16safer1.56–5.790.58–4.392.14–10.18actual6.000.006.00
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.933.629.55safe3.73–8.141.64–5.595.36–13.73safer3.13–8.731.10–6.134.23–14.86actual11.001.0012.00
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.9043.03safe52.58–65.2236.71–49.35safer50.99–66.8135.11–50.95actual66.0034.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction489351840safe424–554287–416710–970safer406–572269–433675–1005actual600280880
Pass accuracy %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction68.3364.79safe64.12–72.5560.28–69.30safer62.82–73.8558.95–70.63
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4615.6528.11safe9.60–15.3112.71–18.6022.31–33.91safer8.72–16.2011.79–19.5220.50–35.72actual17.0016.0033.00
Offsides
26%
18%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.754.62safe0.66–3.071.59–3.912.24–6.99safer0.31–3.421.26–4.251.57–7.66actual5.000.005.00
Yellow cards
27%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.644.51safe0.81–2.921.52–3.762.33–6.68safer0.54–3.201.23–4.051.77–7.25actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.19safe0.00–0.220.00–0.320.00–0.54safer0.00–0.370.00–0.460.00–0.84actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.323.605.92safe0.91–3.732.04–5.152.95–8.89safer0.52–4.121.61–5.582.13–9.71actual3.006.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 0.99–2.92 0.73–3.18 | 3.00 | 0.99 0.13–1.85 0.00–2.10 | 1.00 | 2.95 1.12–4.77 0.62–5.28 | 4.00 | 60% 22% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.65 3.79–7.51 3.29–8.00 | 9.00 | 3.61 1.90–5.32 1.43–5.78 | 4.00 | 9.26 5.70–12.82 4.73–13.79 | 13.00 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 14.90 11.20–18.61 10.17–19.64 | 20.00 | 10.85 7.48–14.23 6.54–15.16 | 7.00 | 25.76 18.67–32.84 16.71–34.80 | 27.00 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.49 7.97–13.01 7.11–13.87 | 14.00 | 6.11 3.81–8.41 3.01–9.21 | 4.00 | 16.60 11.78–21.42 10.12–23.08 | 18.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 2.09–5.26 1.56–5.79 | 6.00 | 2.48 1.07–3.90 0.58–4.39 | 0.00 | 6.16 3.16–9.16 2.14–10.18 | 6.00 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.93 3.73–8.14 3.13–8.73 | 11.00 | 3.62 1.64–5.59 1.10–6.13 | 1.00 | 9.55 5.36–13.73 4.23–14.86 | 12.00 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 58.90 52.58–65.22 50.99–66.81 | 66.00 | 43.03 36.71–49.35 35.11–50.95 | 34.00 | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 489 424–554 406–572 | 600 | 351 287–416 269–433 | 280 | 840 710–970 675–1005 | 880 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.33 64.12–72.55 62.82–73.85 | — | 64.79 60.28–69.30 58.95–70.63 | — | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Fouls | 12.46 9.60–15.31 8.72–16.20 | 17.00 | 15.65 12.71–18.60 11.79–19.52 | 16.00 | 28.11 22.31–33.91 20.50–35.72 | 33.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.66–3.07 0.31–3.42 | 5.00 | 2.75 1.59–3.91 1.26–4.25 | 0.00 | 4.62 2.24–6.99 1.57–7.66 | 5.00 | 26% 18% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.81–2.92 0.54–3.20 | 1.00 | 2.64 1.52–3.76 1.23–4.05 | 3.00 | 4.51 2.33–6.68 1.77–7.25 | 4.00 | 27% 18% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 1.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.32 0.91–3.73 0.52–4.12 | 3.00 | 3.60 2.04–5.15 1.61–5.58 | 6.00 | 5.92 2.95–8.89 2.13–9.71 | 9.00 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.