Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Anastasios Papapetrou · Greece
Goals
16%
22%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction0.811.862.67safe0.00–1.771.00–2.720.84–4.49safer0.00–2.030.75–2.960.34–4.99actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
20%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.144.978.11safe1.28–5.003.27–6.684.55–11.68safer0.79–5.502.80–7.153.58–12.64actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9214.2625.18safe7.22–14.6210.88–17.6418.10–32.26safer6.18–15.659.95–18.5716.14–34.22actual13.0021.0034.00
Shots in box
18%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction6.569.8116.37safe4.05–9.087.51–12.1111.55–21.19safer3.18–9.946.71–12.919.89–22.85actual10.0018.0028.00
Blocked shots
23%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.724.146.86safe1.14–4.302.72–5.553.86–9.86safer0.60–4.842.24–6.042.84–10.88actual5.007.0012.00
Corners
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.815.339.14safe1.61–6.023.35–7.304.95–13.32safer1.01–6.612.81–7.843.82–14.45actual8.005.0013.00
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.6457.93safe36.32–48.9551.61–64.25safer34.72–50.5550.01–65.85actual37.0063.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction357498854safe291–422433–562724–984safer274–440415–580689–1019actual285484769
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction77.9682.93safe73.74–82.1778.43–87.44safer72.44–83.4777.10–88.77
Fouls
46%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7814.8529.63safe11.93–17.6411.90–17.7923.83–35.44safer11.04–18.5310.99–18.7122.03–37.24actual18.0011.0029.00
Offsides
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.493.13safe0.43–2.850.32–2.650.75–5.50safer0.09–3.190.00–2.980.08–6.17actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
42%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.322.204.52safe1.26–3.381.08–3.322.35–6.70safer0.99–3.650.79–3.611.78–7.26actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.430.00–0.440.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
46%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.314.89safe1.16–3.990.75–3.861.92–7.86safer0.78–4.380.32–4.291.10–8.68actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.81 0.00–1.77 0.00–2.03 | 1.00 | 1.86 1.00–2.72 0.75–2.96 | 1.00 | 2.67 0.84–4.49 0.34–4.99 | 2.00 | 16% 22% 62% |
| Shots on target | 3.14 1.28–5.00 0.79–5.50 | 5.00 | 4.97 3.27–6.68 2.80–7.15 | 3.00 | 8.11 4.55–11.68 3.58–12.64 | 8.00 | 20% 68% |
| Total shots | 10.92 7.22–14.62 6.18–15.65 | 13.00 | 14.26 10.88–17.64 9.95–18.57 | 21.00 | 25.18 18.10–32.26 16.14–34.22 | 34.00 | 22% 71% |
| Shots in box | 6.56 4.05–9.08 3.18–9.94 | 10.00 | 9.81 7.51–12.11 6.71–12.91 | 18.00 | 16.37 11.55–21.19 9.89–22.85 | 28.00 | 18% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 2.72 1.14–4.30 0.60–4.84 | 5.00 | 4.14 2.72–5.55 2.24–6.04 | 7.00 | 6.86 3.86–9.86 2.84–10.88 | 12.00 | 23% 14% 64% |
| Corners | 3.81 1.61–6.02 1.01–6.61 | 8.00 | 5.33 3.35–7.30 2.81–7.84 | 5.00 | 9.14 4.95–13.32 3.82–14.45 | 13.00 | 25% 63% |
| Possession % | 42.64 36.32–48.95 34.72–50.55 | 37.00 | 57.93 51.61–64.25 50.01–65.85 | 63.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 357 291–422 274–440 | 285 | 498 433–562 415–580 | 484 | 854 724–984 689–1019 | 769 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.96 73.74–82.17 72.44–83.47 | — | 82.93 78.43–87.44 77.10–88.77 | — | — | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 14.78 11.93–17.64 11.04–18.53 | 18.00 | 14.85 11.90–17.79 10.99–18.71 | 11.00 | 29.63 23.83–35.44 22.03–37.24 | 29.00 | 46% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.43–2.85 0.09–3.19 | 0.00 | 1.49 0.32–2.65 0.00–2.98 | 2.00 | 3.13 0.75–5.50 0.08–6.17 | 2.00 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.26–3.38 0.99–3.65 | 2.00 | 2.20 1.08–3.32 0.79–3.61 | 1.00 | 4.52 2.35–6.70 1.78–7.26 | 3.00 | 42% 19% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.16–3.99 0.78–4.38 | 2.00 | 2.31 0.75–3.86 0.32–4.29 | 4.00 | 4.89 1.92–7.86 1.10–8.68 | 6.00 | 46% 18% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.