Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Eleftherios Katopis · Greece
Goals
33%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.312.48safe0.21–2.140.45–2.160.66–4.30safer0.00–2.400.20–2.410.15–4.81actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
50%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.153.627.77safe2.30–6.011.91–5.324.20–11.33safer1.80–6.511.44–5.793.24–12.30actual2.004.006.00
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8511.2123.06safe8.15–15.567.83–14.5815.98–30.14safer7.12–16.596.90–15.5214.02–32.10actual10.0010.0020.00
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction7.767.3515.10safe5.24–10.275.05–9.6510.29–19.92safer4.38–11.144.25–10.458.63–21.58actual6.008.0014.00
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.252.766.01safe1.67–4.831.35–4.173.01–9.01safer1.13–5.370.86–4.661.99–10.03actual1.001.002.00
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.434.699.13safe2.23–6.642.72–6.674.94–13.31safer1.63–7.242.18–7.213.81–14.44actual1.000.001.00
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction42.9056.23safe36.58–49.2249.91–62.55safer34.98–50.8148.31–64.14actual59.0041.00
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction347455802safe281–412390–520672–932safer264–430373–537637–967actual480344824
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction69.5274.01safe65.30–73.7469.51–78.52safer64.00–75.0468.18–79.85
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4514.8728.32safe10.59–16.3111.92–17.8122.51–34.12safer9.71–17.1911.00–18.7320.71–35.92actual19.0019.0038.00
Offsides
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.274.20safe0.71–3.131.11–3.441.82–6.57safer0.37–3.480.78–3.771.15–7.25actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.142.594.73safe1.09–3.201.47–3.712.55–6.91safer0.82–3.471.18–4.001.99–7.47actual4.004.008.00
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.110.25safe0.00–0.300.00–0.300.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.440.00–0.90actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.755.30safe1.13–3.961.20–4.312.33–8.27safer0.74–4.350.77–4.741.51–9.09actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 1.00 | 1.31 0.45–2.16 0.20–2.41 | 1.00 | 2.48 0.66–4.30 0.15–4.81 | 2.00 | 33% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.30–6.01 1.80–6.51 | 2.00 | 3.62 1.91–5.32 1.44–5.79 | 4.00 | 7.77 4.20–11.33 3.24–12.30 | 6.00 | 50% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 11.85 8.15–15.56 7.12–16.59 | 10.00 | 11.21 7.83–14.58 6.90–15.52 | 10.00 | 23.06 15.98–30.14 14.02–32.10 | 20.00 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.76 5.24–10.27 4.38–11.14 | 6.00 | 7.35 5.05–9.65 4.25–10.45 | 8.00 | 15.10 10.29–19.92 8.63–21.58 | 14.00 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.67–4.83 1.13–5.37 | 1.00 | 2.76 1.35–4.17 0.86–4.66 | 1.00 | 6.01 3.01–9.01 1.99–10.03 | 2.00 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 4.43 2.23–6.64 1.63–7.24 | 1.00 | 4.69 2.72–6.67 2.18–7.21 | 0.00 | 9.13 4.94–13.31 3.81–14.44 | 1.00 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 42.90 36.58–49.22 34.98–50.81 | 59.00 | 56.23 49.91–62.55 48.31–64.14 | 41.00 | — | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 347 281–412 264–430 | 480 | 455 390–520 373–537 | 344 | 802 672–932 637–967 | 824 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.52 65.30–73.74 64.00–75.04 | — | 74.01 69.51–78.52 68.18–79.85 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 13.45 10.59–16.31 9.71–17.19 | 19.00 | 14.87 11.92–17.81 11.00–18.73 | 19.00 | 28.32 22.51–34.12 20.71–35.92 | 38.00 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.71–3.13 0.37–3.48 | 0.00 | 2.27 1.11–3.44 0.78–3.77 | 4.00 | 4.20 1.82–6.57 1.15–7.25 | 4.00 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.20 0.82–3.47 | 4.00 | 2.59 1.47–3.71 1.18–4.00 | 4.00 | 4.73 2.55–6.91 1.99–7.47 | 8.00 | 33% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.90 | 0.00 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.13–3.96 0.74–4.35 | 3.00 | 2.75 1.20–4.31 0.77–4.74 | 1.00 | 5.30 2.33–8.27 1.51–9.09 | 4.00 | 38% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+