Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Vasilios Fitsas · Greece
Goals
33%
29%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.172.23safe0.10–2.030.31–2.030.41–4.05safer0.00–2.290.06–2.270.00–4.56actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.333.868.19safe2.47–6.182.15–5.574.62–11.75safer1.97–6.681.68–6.043.65–12.72actual6.005.0011.00
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7812.6525.43safe9.07–16.489.27–16.0318.35–32.51safer8.04–17.518.34–16.9616.39–34.47actual15.0011.0026.00
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction7.587.7515.32safe5.06–10.095.44–10.0510.51–20.14safer4.20–10.964.65–10.848.84–21.80actual12.007.0019.00
Blocked shots
36%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.396.36safe1.39–4.551.98–4.813.36–9.36safer0.85–5.091.49–5.292.34–10.38actual1.002.003.00
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.599.59safe2.80–7.212.61–6.575.41–13.78safer2.21–7.812.07–7.104.28–14.91actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction48.3552.11safe42.04–54.6745.79–58.42safer40.44–56.2744.19–60.02actual46.0054.00
Passes
47%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction362369731safe297–427304–434601–861safer279–445287–451566–896actual327374701
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction74.0176.72safe69.79–78.2272.22–81.23safer68.49–79.5270.89–82.56
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4416.0131.45safe12.58–18.3013.06–18.9525.65–37.25safer11.70–19.1812.14–19.8723.84–39.05actual16.0014.0030.00
Offsides
67%
18%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.491.153.64safe1.28–3.700.00–2.311.27–6.01safer0.94–4.050.00–2.640.59–6.69actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
45%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.555.30safe1.69–3.811.42–3.673.12–7.47safer1.42–4.081.13–3.962.56–8.03actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.110.28safe0.01–0.320.00–0.310.00–0.62safer0.00–0.470.00–0.450.00–0.92actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.705.27safe1.15–3.981.14–4.252.30–8.23safer0.77–4.370.71–4.681.48–9.06actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.10–2.03 0.00–2.29 | 3.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.06–2.27 | 1.00 | 2.23 0.41–4.05 0.00–4.56 | 4.00 | 33% 29% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.33 2.47–6.18 1.97–6.68 | 6.00 | 3.86 2.15–5.57 1.68–6.04 | 5.00 | 8.19 4.62–11.75 3.65–12.72 | 11.00 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.78 9.07–16.48 8.04–17.51 | 15.00 | 12.65 9.27–16.03 8.34–16.96 | 11.00 | 25.43 18.35–32.51 16.39–34.47 | 26.00 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 7.58 5.06–10.09 4.20–10.96 | 12.00 | 7.75 5.44–10.05 4.65–10.84 | 7.00 | 15.32 10.51–20.14 8.84–21.80 | 19.00 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 1.39–4.55 0.85–5.09 | 1.00 | 3.39 1.98–4.81 1.49–5.29 | 2.00 | 6.36 3.36–9.36 2.34–10.38 | 3.00 | 36% 16% 49% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.80–7.21 2.21–7.81 | 6.00 | 4.59 2.61–6.57 2.07–7.10 | 3.00 | 9.59 5.41–13.78 4.28–14.91 | 9.00 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 48.35 42.04–54.67 40.44–56.27 | 46.00 | 52.11 45.79–58.42 44.19–60.02 | 54.00 | — | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 362 297–427 279–445 | 327 | 369 304–434 287–451 | 374 | 731 601–861 566–896 | 701 | 47% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.01 69.79–78.22 68.49–79.52 | — | 76.72 72.22–81.23 70.89–82.56 | — | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 15.44 12.58–18.30 11.70–19.18 | 16.00 | 16.01 13.06–18.95 12.14–19.87 | 14.00 | 31.45 25.65–37.25 23.84–39.05 | 30.00 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.49 1.28–3.70 0.94–4.05 | 3.00 | 1.15 0.00–2.31 0.00–2.64 | 0.00 | 3.64 1.27–6.01 0.59–6.69 | 3.00 | 67% 18% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.75 1.69–3.81 1.42–4.08 | 2.00 | 2.55 1.42–3.67 1.13–3.96 | 4.00 | 5.30 3.12–7.47 2.56–8.03 | 6.00 | 45% 18% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.01–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.92 | 0.00 | 14% 77% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.15–3.98 0.77–4.37 | 4.00 | 2.70 1.14–4.25 0.71–4.68 | 3.00 | 5.27 2.30–8.23 1.48–9.06 | 7.00 | 39% 18% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.