Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Konstantinos Tsetsilas · Greece
Goals
40%
28%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.122.40safe0.32–2.250.26–1.980.58–4.23safer0.06–2.510.01–2.220.07–4.73actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.538.03safe2.64–6.351.82–5.244.46–11.59safer2.14–6.851.35–5.713.50–12.56actual4.001.005.00
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1410.3324.47safe10.44–17.856.95–13.7017.39–31.55safer9.41–18.886.02–14.6315.43–33.51actual10.005.0015.00
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.716.9415.65safe6.19–11.234.64–9.2410.83–20.47safer5.33–12.093.84–10.049.17–22.13actual6.001.007.00
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.762.916.67safe2.17–5.341.50–4.333.67–9.67safer1.64–5.881.01–4.812.65–10.69actual3.003.006.00
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.499.69safe2.99–7.402.51–6.475.50–13.87safer2.40–8.001.97–7.004.37–15.00actual9.004.0013.00
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction51.4646.78safe45.14–57.7840.47–53.10safer43.54–59.3738.87–54.70actual63.0037.00
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction398386785safe333–464322–451655–915safer315–481304–469620–950actual482286768
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction74.1572.26safe69.93–78.3667.76–76.77safer68.63–79.6766.43–78.10
Fouls
68%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction18.3015.0533.35safe15.44–21.1512.10–17.9927.54–39.15safer14.55–22.0411.19–18.9125.74–40.95actual16.0014.0030.00
Offsides
33%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.214.07safe0.66–3.071.05–3.371.70–6.45safer0.31–3.420.71–3.701.03–7.12actual3.006.009.00
Yellow cards
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.042.885.91safe1.98–4.091.76–4.003.74–8.09safer1.71–4.361.47–4.293.18–8.65actual3.004.007.00
Red cards
13%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.150.32safe0.01–0.320.00–0.350.00–0.66safer0.00–0.470.00–0.490.00–0.96actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.865.15safe0.87–3.701.31–4.422.18–8.11safer0.48–4.090.88–4.851.36–8.94actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.25 0.06–2.51 | 0.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.01–2.22 | 0.00 | 2.40 0.58–4.23 0.07–4.73 | 0.00 | 40% 28% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.35 2.14–6.85 | 4.00 | 3.53 1.82–5.24 1.35–5.71 | 1.00 | 8.03 4.46–11.59 3.50–12.56 | 5.00 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.14 10.44–17.85 9.41–18.88 | 10.00 | 10.33 6.95–13.70 6.02–14.63 | 5.00 | 24.47 17.39–31.55 15.43–33.51 | 15.00 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 8.71 6.19–11.23 5.33–12.09 | 6.00 | 6.94 4.64–9.24 3.84–10.04 | 1.00 | 15.65 10.83–20.47 9.17–22.13 | 7.00 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.76 2.17–5.34 1.64–5.88 | 3.00 | 2.91 1.50–4.33 1.01–4.81 | 3.00 | 6.67 3.67–9.67 2.65–10.69 | 6.00 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.20 2.99–7.40 2.40–8.00 | 9.00 | 4.49 2.51–6.47 1.97–7.00 | 4.00 | 9.69 5.50–13.87 4.37–15.00 | 13.00 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.46 45.14–57.78 43.54–59.37 | 63.00 | 46.78 40.47–53.10 38.87–54.70 | 37.00 | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 398 333–464 315–481 | 482 | 386 322–451 304–469 | 286 | 785 655–915 620–950 | 768 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.15 69.93–78.36 68.63–79.67 | — | 72.26 67.76–76.77 66.43–78.10 | — | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 18.30 15.44–21.15 14.55–22.04 | 16.00 | 15.05 12.10–17.99 11.19–18.91 | 14.00 | 33.35 27.54–39.15 25.74–40.95 | 30.00 | 68% 26% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.66–3.07 0.31–3.42 | 3.00 | 2.21 1.05–3.37 0.71–3.70 | 6.00 | 4.07 1.70–6.45 1.03–7.12 | 9.00 | 33% 20% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 3.04 1.98–4.09 1.71–4.36 | 3.00 | 2.88 1.76–4.00 1.47–4.29 | 4.00 | 5.91 3.74–8.09 3.18–8.65 | 7.00 | 44% 17% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.01–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.49 | 0.00 | 0.32 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.96 | 0.00 | 13% 75% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.87–3.70 0.48–4.09 | 1.00 | 2.86 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.85 | 4.00 | 5.15 2.18–8.11 1.36–8.94 | 5.00 | 31% 18% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.