Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Vassilis Fotias · Greece
Goals
64%
22%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction1.810.692.50safe0.85–2.780.00–1.540.68–4.32safer0.59–3.040.00–1.790.17–4.83actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.732.738.46safe3.87–7.581.03–4.444.90–12.03safer3.37–8.080.56–4.913.93–12.99actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction16.376.9623.33safe12.66–20.073.58–10.3416.25–30.41safer11.63–21.102.65–11.2714.29–32.37actual20.0013.0033.00
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.334.9215.25safe7.82–12.852.62–7.2210.43–20.07safer6.95–13.711.82–8.028.77–21.73actual13.0010.0023.00
Blocked shots
74%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.021.965.98safe2.44–5.610.54–3.372.98–8.98safer1.91–6.140.06–3.861.96–10.00actual5.000.005.00
Corners
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.633.169.78safe4.42–8.831.18–5.135.60–13.97safer3.83–9.430.64–5.674.47–15.10actual8.002.0010.00
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction57.7242.29safe51.40–64.0435.98–48.61safer49.81–65.6334.38–50.21actual62.0038.00
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction474353827safe408–539289–418697–957safer391–557271–435662–992actual612369981
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction77.6669.64safe73.44–81.8765.13–74.14safer72.14–83.1863.80–75.47
Fouls
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1012.4027.50safe12.25–17.969.45–15.3421.70–33.31safer11.36–18.858.54–16.2619.90–35.11actual12.006.0018.00
Offsides
34%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.364.40safe0.83–3.251.20–3.522.03–6.77safer0.49–3.600.86–3.851.35–7.45actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
26%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.514.20safe0.64–2.751.39–3.632.03–6.38safer0.37–3.021.10–3.921.47–6.94actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.130.19safe0.00–0.210.00–0.320.00–0.53safer0.00–0.360.00–0.460.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
14%
13%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction1.643.495.13safe0.22–3.051.94–5.052.16–8.10safer0.00–3.441.51–5.481.34–8.92actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.85–2.78 0.59–3.04 | 0.00 | 0.69 0.00–1.54 0.00–1.79 | 1.00 | 2.50 0.68–4.32 0.17–4.83 | 1.00 | 64% 22% 14% |
| Shots on target | 5.73 3.87–7.58 3.37–8.08 | 4.00 | 2.73 1.03–4.44 0.56–4.91 | 4.00 | 8.46 4.90–12.03 3.93–12.99 | 8.00 | 81% |
| Total shots | 16.37 12.66–20.07 11.63–21.10 | 20.00 | 6.96 3.58–10.34 2.65–11.27 | 13.00 | 23.33 16.25–30.41 14.29–32.37 | 33.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 10.33 7.82–12.85 6.95–13.71 | 13.00 | 4.92 2.62–7.22 1.82–8.02 | 10.00 | 15.25 10.43–20.07 8.77–21.73 | 23.00 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 2.44–5.61 1.91–6.14 | 5.00 | 1.96 0.54–3.37 0.06–3.86 | 0.00 | 5.98 2.98–8.98 1.96–10.00 | 5.00 | 74% 14% |
| Corners | 6.63 4.42–8.83 3.83–9.43 | 8.00 | 3.16 1.18–5.13 0.64–5.67 | 2.00 | 9.78 5.60–13.97 4.47–15.10 | 10.00 | 83% |
| Possession % | 57.72 51.40–64.04 49.81–65.63 | 62.00 | 42.29 35.98–48.61 34.38–50.21 | 38.00 | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 474 408–539 391–557 | 612 | 353 289–418 271–435 | 369 | 827 697–957 662–992 | 981 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.66 73.44–81.87 72.14–83.18 | — | 69.64 65.13–74.14 63.80–75.47 | — | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 15.10 12.25–17.96 11.36–18.85 | 12.00 | 12.40 9.45–15.34 8.54–16.26 | 6.00 | 27.50 21.70–33.31 19.90–35.11 | 18.00 | 66% 27% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.83–3.25 0.49–3.60 | 0.00 | 2.36 1.20–3.52 0.86–3.85 | 4.00 | 4.40 2.03–6.77 1.35–7.45 | 4.00 | 34% 19% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.75 0.37–3.02 | 1.00 | 2.51 1.39–3.63 1.10–3.92 | 0.00 | 4.20 2.03–6.38 1.47–6.94 | 1.00 | 26% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 1.64 0.22–3.05 0.00–3.44 | 4.00 | 3.49 1.94–5.05 1.51–5.48 | 4.00 | 5.13 2.16–8.10 1.34–8.92 | 8.00 | 14% 13% 73% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+